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In this Pro Charts Market Movers episode, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway deep-dives what's actually moving the markets today. The big story: the president declared the Iran ceasefire over, oil is rallying hard, and that's spiking the 10-year yield and stoking inflation fears. Gareth walks the oil trade he's been long, the dollar-yen carry-trade risk, a big Alibaba breakout, and why the semiconductor rollover says the AI bubble is still deleveraging.
📊 CHARTS COVERED:
🟢 Crude Oil (USO) - The story of the day: rallying on the Iran ceasefire collapse after a gap fill and 100% retrace marked the bottom. Gareth's long from the gap fill; first target ~$79, where he'll look to take the Smart Money USO position off the table
🔴 10-Year Yield - Spiking toward ~4.6% (a ~24 bps move in a week) as rising oil reignites inflation fears, forcing a more hawkish Fed and raising borrowing costs
🔴 US Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) - At new all-time highs; a weakening yen threatens the carry trade. Gareth flags the 2024 precedent - an unwind and intervention that swooned the Nasdaq ~15% in weeks - with fresh intervention chatter now
🟢 Alibaba (BABA) - Jumped ~12% (biggest one-day rise since Sept 2025) as regulatory pressure eased; a textbook oversold reversal off stacked support. Gareth is long in Smart Money Stocks & ETFs
🔴 SanDisk (SNDK) - Surged to ~$1,707 early then rolled over to ~$1,612; a poor rollover signaling the semis are still deleveraging
🔴 Micron (MU) - Negative on the day (~-2.25%); Gareth's buy zone is the $750-$820 area, possibly reached late this week or early next
🔴 Seagate (STX) - Another memory name that surged then flipped negative - same pattern
🟢 Broadcom (AVGO) - The one caveat: relatively strong, up ~4% on an extended Apple chip-supply deal, while the rest of the space gives back gains
🔴 Arm Holdings (ARM) - Down at recent lows; a huge level at the $257 gap fill
🔴 Marvell (MRVL) - A $219 gap fill looks interesting for a quick swing, with a possible move toward $175 - part of 30%+ corrections across the semis
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: A collapsing Iran ceasefire sent oil higher, rippling through everything - spiking yields, pressuring the Fed, and threatening the yen carry trade. Meanwhile the semis keep failing their early bounces, which Gareth reads as institutions dumping into strength and deleveraging the AI bubble. His mantra: what goes up sharply corrects, and "it's never different."
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
0:00 - Intro: What's Moving the Markets Today
0:45 - Crude Oil: The Iran Ceasefire Collapse & the Long Trade
3:30 - The 10-Year Yield: Oil, Inflation & a Hawkish Fed
6:00 - Dollar-Yen: The Carry-Trade Earthquake Risk
8:30 - Alibaba (BABA): The 12% Regulatory-Relief Surge
10:30 - SanDisk & Micron: The Semiconductor Rollover
13:00 - Broadcom, Arm & Marvell: Breadcrumbs & Gap Fills
15:30 - Why It's a Bubble: Lessons From the Dot-Com Era
17:00 - Wrap-Up
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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This video is for educational and informational purposes only and is NOT financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Gareth Soloway and Verified Investing are not registered investment advisors. All trading involves substantial risk of loss; consult a qualified financial professional before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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