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Did the AI bubble just burst? After a brutal AI-led selloff on Wall Street, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway breaks down the technical damage on Trading The Close. The KOSPI fell 10% overnight (triggering circuit breakers), the Nasdaq dropped over 3%, and Micron got hammered into tomorrow's make-or-break earnings. Gareth's answer: not officially - not yet. He walks through exactly what would confirm a market top, why a wave of cheaper AI models threatens future margin compression across chips and memory, and where money is quietly rotating as the dust settles.
📊 COVERED IN THIS EPISODE:
🔴 The AI Selloff & Semis - Micron down 13% on the day; the bubble isn't confirmed burst until the semis put in a confirming down move, and Micron earnings tomorrow after the bell are the trigger
🔴 KOSPI, Nikkei & Concentration Risk - The KOSPI's 10% drop (two stocks make up over half the index) - and a reminder that ~10 stocks drive the Nasdaq 100; a KOSPI gap fill ~5% lower is the bounce zone Gareth is watching tonight
🔵 S&P 500 & Nasdaq (QQQ) - Lower lows are in (stage one); Gareth wants to see a lower high (stage two) to call a market top, and is holding off until Micron earnings
🔴 NVIDIA (NVDA) - Down 4%; even at a ~21 forward PE, cheaper AI models raise the risk of margin compression down the line
🔴 FedEx (FDX) - Falling after hours on earnings, with a major multi-year trendline now at risk of breaking down
🔴 Cerebras - The new IPO semi reports at 7PM ET; opened to the public at $350 and has traded down near $197, with a bear flag keeping it suspect even on a bounce
🔵 US Dollar (DXY) - Soaring on safe-haven flows and a hawkish Warsh, now into major resistance at 101.50-101.60; Gareth is skeptical it breaks out given US debt
🟢 Microsoft (MSFT) & Defensives - Money rotating into MSFT (up ~2%), Netflix, ConAgra, and Kraft Heinz; an oversold bounce in Microsoft could target ~$400
🔴 Gold - Still bearish; first support at $3,900-$4,000, and a break opens the door to $3,500
🔴 Silver - A nasty breakdown to its lowest close since the move to $120; $54 could come within days, with $50 the longer-term target
🔵 Oil & Natural Gas - Oil a range-bound non-event today; nat gas stuck in a tight range with a possible bullish cup-and-handle
🔴 Bitcoin (BTC) - Sitting on a double bottom; if the AI and Nasdaq correction continues, it likely heads toward $50,000 or below
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: It was a brutal AI-led day, but Gareth says the bubble hasn't officially burst - the lower lows are in, and a lower high (likely confirmed by Micron's earnings tomorrow) would complete the top. The bigger story is the threat of margin compression from cheaper AI models; for now, money is rotating into defensives and the dollar while metals and Bitcoin stay heavy.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
0:00 - Intro: Did the AI Bubble Just Burst?
1:30 - The S&P Intraday: A Weak, Lower-High Day
4:00 - KOSPI, Nikkei & the Concentration Risk
6:30 - Nasdaq: Watching for the Lower High
8:00 - The Dollar Soars Into Major Resistance
10:30 - FedEx & Cerebras: Earnings Red Flags
13:00 - NVIDIA, Micron & the Margin-Compression Threat
15:00 - Rotation Into Microsoft & Defensives
16:30 - Gold & Silver Break Down
18:00 - Oil, Natural Gas & Bitcoin
19:30 - What to Watch Tonight & Tomorrow
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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
The information presented in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be considered financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Gareth Soloway and Verified Investing are not registered investment advisors. All trading and investing involves substantial risk of loss, and you should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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