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📅 Watch the Weekly Wrap-Up every Friday!
Welcome to the Weekly Wrap-Up. Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway deep-dives the week's market action — charts and data, no hype. This week was all about narrative: a sharp sell-off after the FOMC statement and Kevin Warsh's first press conference, an Iran deal signing moved up to Wednesday evening, and a market-moving Intel-Apple chip deal — a string of headlines that kept rescuing the tape into a three-day weekend. Gareth breaks down why a market this dependent on headlines builds a bubble, and the exact charts and levels that matter going into Monday.
📊 COVERED THIS WEEK:
🔵 S&P 500 - The first lower low is in; Gareth is reluctant to call a lower high without three down days. Watching next week
🔵 NASDAQ - On the log chart, connecting highs-to-highs leaves room for another 7-8% of upside (toward ~28,500), while a corrective move maps to a ~32% drawdown - right in line with the post-2008 average
🔵 10-Year Yield - Back into support after a breakout, forming a bullish wedge/flag at the apex. A breakout is bad for stocks; a breakdown is good near-term unless it pairs with a weaker economy
🔵 US Dollar (DXY) - Fighting resistance and weak until proven otherwise; a break above $101.50 would flip it to breakout territory
🔴 Gold - Acting weak even as the dollar pulled back. Support near $4,000, with a breakout above the $4,400 level
🔴 USD/JPY - A perfect double top - the same level that preceded a ~10% S&P drop in three weeks back in 2024. A breakout here (yen weakening) is a carry-trade warning sign to watch
🔵 Japan 10-Year Yield - A bullish flag; a breakout toward 3% would cause more issues for global markets
🟢 Software (IGV, MSFT, ADBE, TTD) - Institutional buying at major support; Gareth is a bull on the group, with The Trade Desk a potential squeeze candidate over $21
🟢 Oil - A small bounce; Gareth picked up some long below $75 (strategic-reserve refill), eyeing $80, maybe $84
🔵 Natural Gas - A potential cup-and-handle that's looking better for a bullish breakout - on the radar, not in yet
🔴 Bitcoin - Broke below the key $63,300-$63,500 area, showing relative weakness; watching for a reclaim
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: A market increasingly propped up by headlines sits between roughly 7-8% more NASDAQ upside and a ~32% drawdown. Into next week, Gareth is watching the S&P lower-high question, the dollar-yen double top, and Japanese yields.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
0:00 - Intro: A Market Run by Headlines
1:30 - The Narrative Game: FOMC, the Iran Deal & Intel-Apple
5:00 - S&P 500: The Lower Low & the Lower-High Question
6:30 - NASDAQ: 7-8% Upside vs. a 32% Drawdown
9:30 - The 10-Year Yield: Bullish Wedge at the Apex
11:30 - US Dollar & Gold: Weak Until Proven Otherwise
13:30 - The Dollar-Yen Double Top & the Carry-Trade Warning
16:00 - Japan's 10-Year Yield: A Bullish Flag to Watch
18:00 - Software Plays: IGV, Microsoft, Adobe & The Trade Desk
21:00 - Gold, Silver, Oil & Natural Gas
23:30 - Bitcoin & What to Watch Monday
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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
The information presented in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be considered financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Gareth Soloway and Verified Investing are not registered investment advisors. All trading and investing involves substantial risk of loss, and you should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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