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Russian troops are abandoning their positions on the occupied Kinburn Spit. They realize that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have the opportunity to cross the Dnieper. The enemy understands that they could find themselves completely surrounded.
Retired Ukrainian Colonel, pilot instructor, and military expert Roman Svitan told Channel 24 that reaching the left bank and then Skadovsk is possible through a ground operation following an airborne one. According to him, preparations for the operation are currently underway.
Roman Svitan noted that an air operation must first be conducted, followed by a ground operation. Control can only be achieved when a foot soldier sets foot on the ground. Movement can begin from Skadovsk.
"First, we need to take control of Skadovsk. Access to Skadovsk is possible from several directions. But the optimal route is through Kherson, Oleshky, and Hola Prystan. The road there is there for a reason," the military expert said.
If a group is established on the right bank, a bridgehead is established on the left, and then the advance is towards Skadovsk. The Russians are fleeing the Kinburn Spit because they understand that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have the opportunity to cross the Dnieper.
"That is, reaching the left bank, and then Skadovsk, is possible through a ground operation after the air operation. Then the Russians will find themselves completely encircled on the Kinburn Spit, hemmed in by the Dnieper, the Black Sea, and our front. That's why they're already starting to withdraw from there. And preparations for the operation are already visible," explained the retired colonel.
The Russian command has begun withdrawing its units from one of the key sections of the front. Analysts claim this is due to constant Ukrainian drone strikes . The occupiers' defense of the northern and western parts of the Kinburn Spit is becoming "increasingly impossible."
Units of Moscow's 337th Airborne Regiment are abandoning their positions due to a "completely disrupted" supply chain, the Institute for the Study of War writes in a new report. Specifically, Russian troops on the spit are left without ammunition, fuel, and provisions. Amidst the exponential growth of losses, they are completely powerless.
Therefore, some troops were redeployed to the Zaporizhzhia sector. However, a representative of the Southern Ukrainian Defense Forces could not confirm or deny this information. If the reports of Russian units withdrawing from the Kinburn Spit are confirmed, Ukraine will be able to more effectively defend the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions from shelling. Russia, however, will then lose control of the Dnieper River.
Military expert Ivan Stupak commented. "If this is indeed confirmed, it will, first and foremost, be a highly publicized and emotional event, raising Ukrainian morale because the Russians are withdrawing, even if only from a small area," he noted.
Stupak added that it's very difficult to hold the Kinburn Spit. He said it's very difficult to provide troops for both the Russians and us, if we plan to deploy there. "We're not talking about them completely withdrawing from this spit; the preliminary indication is that they've retreated several kilometers deeper into their positions to more easily secure fuel, medicine, and ammunition," the expert said. Stupak believes that only with time will it become clear to what extent they emerged from this spit:
"If we withdraw completely, then we'll make the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions a little safer—which will probably reduce the chaotic shelling from these locations. We'll also minimize losses to our traffic across the Dnieper River. That means it'll be easier to navigate there."
The expert also said that as a result of such a withdrawal, if it actually takes place, Russia will lose control over the Dnieper River and the ability to carry out shelling.
"If they really are leaving this territory, it will be easier for us to use our surface drones. In any case, this is our territory. A smaller presence reduces their ability to influence our territory," he noted.
Moreover, he said, the Kinburn Spit could be the first example this year of Russia being forced to abandon a key foothold due to logistical problems rather than a direct assault by the Defense Forces.
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