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The yen just signaled a new crisis brewing, and the jobs report got rushed to market a day early — Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway says that's not a coincidence. With markets closed Friday for a shortened holiday week, he breaks down why a Thursday jobs release tells you the data is probably good, why the dollar-yen's breakout has Japan reportedly considering intervention with the US, and the failed-breakout setup on the S&P that could trigger a fast 250-point drop. Plus a weekly reversal engulfing candle on the SOX, Oracle's eerie echo in Micron's chart, and the make-or-break levels on SpaceX, gold, silver, oil, and Bitcoin.
📊 COVERED IN THIS EPISODE:
🔴 S&P 500 - Watching the massive COVID-lows parallel channel; a close below 7,250 risks a fast ~250-point drop toward the 2025-2026 highs near 7,000 - a classic failed-breakout setup
🔴 Semiconductors (SOX) - A weekly reversal engulfing candle (more powerful than a topping tail) just printed, echoing weakness already showing in NVIDIA and Broadcom
🔴 Micron (MU) - Surged 14% on earnings, then gave it all back by yesterday's lows before a bounce - Gareth draws a direct parallel to Oracle's September 2025 earnings top that preceded a 50%+ collapse
🔴 US Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) - A potential breakout signaling significant yen weakness; sources tell Gareth Japan and the US may be considering coordinated intervention - the same setup that triggered a 15% Nasdaq decline in July-August 2024
🟢 AeroVironment (AVAV) - Bouncing off a beaten-down post-earnings low ($135 from $400+ in October); not overbought enough to short, but Gareth likes pullbacks for a longer-term swing given the drone-warfare thesis
🔴 SpaceX - Atrocious price action after its Nasdaq-100 addition pop; the $149-$150 first-day-low support is the line in the sand - a daily close below opens a drop to the $135 IPO price, where institutions are likely to defend
🔵 Oracle (ORCL) - At a critical trendline support near $145; a break opens $135, then $120 - still technically a buy with a tight stop at the trendline
🔵 Gold - Flushed near $3,900 overnight, now flat to positive; holding support keeps $4,300 in play, a break opens $3,500. Gareth is bullish mid-to-long-term and would buy a breakdown
🔴 Silver - Going sideways in a possible bear flag; support at $54, then $50
🟢 Crude Oil - Catching a bid off support; Gareth doesn't expect a move below $67 near-term given the strategic-reserve refill thesis
🔵 Natural Gas - Still rangebound for weeks; a slight bullish lean on the cup-and-handle, but not enough conviction yet for a position
🔴 Bitcoin (BTC) - Down to ~$58,400; the line in the sand is ~$58,800 - a confirmed close below opens $53K, then $50K. Every bounce has been a bear flag or a blip so far
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: A rushed jobs report and a yen breakout flirting with intervention are both signals something's brewing beneath a quiet holiday-week tape. The S&P's failed-breakout risk, a weekly reversal candle on the semis, and Micron's eerie echo of Oracle's earnings top all point the same direction - Gareth's watching for confirmation rather than chasing either side.
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💬 Comment: does the yen intervention come, or does this keep running?
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⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
The information presented in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be considered financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Gareth Soloway and Verified Investing are not registered investment advisors. All trading and investing involves substantial risk of loss, and you should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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