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Raoul Pal just made one of the more specific crypto calls he has put out in a long time. And he is not leaning on sentiment or gut feeling. He pulled up charts and walked through exactly why he believes Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Sui are sitting at levels that have historically come right before the biggest moves in crypto history.
Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and one of the most closely followed macro researchers in the world, starts with semiconductors. They are sitting close to four standard deviations above their long-term log regression trend since 2008. That is rare territory. It does not mean they crash tomorrow, but it does mean they will not be the leaders of the next phase. That observation sets up the rotation call. The assets that have been leading this cycle are stretched. The layer ones are sitting in the opposite position.
Ethereum is hitting a monthly 8 and monthly 12 count on the DeMark indicators, which Pal considers among the most reliable technical tools he has ever used. The full reversal pattern requires nines and thirteens, and Ethereum is right at the edge of that threshold, at the bottom of a consolidation wedge that looks structurally identical to what gold built before its 2025 breakout.
Sui has already passed that threshold, sitting roughly 1.8 standard deviations below its log regression channel. Bitcoin's log channel is flashing the same accumulation signal it has produced three times before. Each time, what followed was one of the sharpest upside moves in Bitcoin's history.
He also walks through the macro framework he calls the everything code. Demographics drive debt. Debt drives money printing. Money printing drives liquidity. And liquidity drives asset prices with a lag that is measurable and historically consistent. The 2022 crypto bottom mapped almost exactly to the trough in global liquidity. Since then, global liquidity has been rising.
The specific shift he is tracking now is the policy move away from central bank balance sheet expansion toward bank-driven credit creation, the mechanism Scott Bessent, Kevin Worsh, and others have signaled publicly. And for the first time since that negative period began, excess liquidity, the amount of liquidity growth above GDP growth, has turned positive across both measures he tracks.
In this video we walk through his complete framework. Why the rotation from AI-led assets toward layer ones is structurally set up the same way leadership rotations have worked inside every extended technology cycle. Why AI and blockchain are not competing but converging into the same infrastructure layer, with programmable settlement rails being an architectural requirement for autonomous agent-driven commerce rather than a speculative capability.
Why the best performing brokerage accounts historically belong to people who simply do not sell, and why his signals currently say accumulate rather than reduce. And why his simple accumulation framework, adding at 1.5 standard deviations oversold and taking lifestyle chips at 2 standard deviations overbought, has historically produced some of the best risk-adjusted returns available in any asset class.
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Email:
jamin@cryptonutshell.com
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Disclaimer: This video is for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Investing
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