Jobs beat by 109,000 — and Gareth still does not think the Fed hikes.
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August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a consensus of 53,000, with June and July revised up by about 55,000 combined. Good for the economy, bad for stocks — it raises the odds of a September 16 hike. But Fed Watch only moved from 52.4% to 58%, and Gareth Soloway explains why that muted reaction matters more.
📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN
🟢 THE JOBS REPORT — A 109,000 beat, plus upward revisions to the prior two months — the opposite of the usual pattern. Unemployment held at 4.1%, participation ticked up, hourly earnings in line at 0.3%, wages up 3.1%.
🔵 WHY THE ODDS BARELY MOVED — Hike odds went 52.4% to 58%, not the surge you would expect. Two reasons: most analysts still expect these numbers revised down, and the underbelly showed losses in hospitality. CPI and PPI also land next week, just before the meeting — those are the end-all numbers.
🔴 HIS CALL — Gareth goes against consensus: he still does not think the Fed hikes in September. He hopes he is wrong, because they probably should to curb inflation, but he does not believe they have the backbone. Lower CPI and PPI give them the out.
🔵 SPY — Above 7,570 he stays bullish, resistance near 7,900. Below it neutral; below the yellow line is the real breakdown. Seasonal note: the day before a three-day weekend usually floats higher.
🔴 THE 10-YEAR — The line in the sand is 4.80% to 4.81%, the double top off January 2025. Price popped, tagged it again today, and is already pulling back. Below it the market holds its strength into CPI; above it, 5% is the destination.
🔴 LULULEMON — Down 20% after earnings, at levels not seen since 2018. On the weekly, major pivots from 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2018 mark the base it broke out from and is falling back into. He loves $80 to $81 as a swing buy. Price is still $98, so it needs time.
🔵 ZSCALER / PLANET LABS — Zscaler popped on earnings then went negative; day trade only at $150 to $155, where pivot highs turned into a breakout and price would retrace into support. Planet Labs was at 52-week lows into the print and is bouncing, but not enough to short.
🟢 TESLA / APPLE — Tesla's trend line off the 2024 high pivot has made every tag an excellent buy. Yesterday filled a gap and topped out exactly where a low pivot line projected; today gave back nearly the whole 5% move. He would short a rally and buy that line whenever it comes. Apple has rallied hard off the earnings drop, and a gap fill makes it intriguing as a swing short.
🔴 VALERO / PSX — His biggest conviction short. Labor Day ends driving season, and refiners historically let oil come in afterward. Crack spreads are enormous and should shrink. Valero is his largest short with Smart Money members. PSX printed a daily topping tail yesterday — he sees the low $200s.
🔵 OIL / NATGAS — Crude hit short-term resistance and is coming in. After a wedge breakout, a retrace to the scene of the crime is common, so $83 is on the table. Natural gas fell on a bigger build but holds his pivot line — with winter seasonality, European shortages, and data center demand, he sees $3.30.
🔴 GOLD / SILVER / BITCOIN — All three sold on one input: strong jobs, yields up, dollar up. Gareth is flat on gold and says so — the long worked on the breakout, the short worked at the trend line, and now he has no read. Silver support is $63.25. Bitcoin rallied into resistance yesterday and got hammered today.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Sitting out is a position. Gareth is flat on gold after trading both sides of it profitably, and he is direct about why — no read right now. He used to need to be in something for the adrenaline. Waiting in cash for the right setup turned out to be more profitable.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Jobs Beat by 109,000
03:00 The Revisions Nobody Expected
06:00 Why Hike Odds Only Moved to 58%
09:00 Why He Still Says No Hike
12:00 S&P: 7,570 and 7,900
15:00 The 10-Year's Line in the Sand
18:00 Lululemon Down 20%: The $80 Level
23:00 Tesla's Trend Line That Always Pays
28:00 Why He Is Short Valero
33:00 Oil's Retrace, Natural Gas to $3.30
36:00 Gold, Silver, Bitcoin All Sell
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💬 COMMENT: Does the Fed hike on the 16th?
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⚠️ Educational and informational only — not financial advice. Gareth Soloway and Verified Investing are not registered investment advisors. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
#StockMarket #Trading #JobsReport #Fed #Yields #Gold #Bitcoin #Lululemon #Tesla #Apple #Oil #NaturalGas #SP500 
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