📉 Mark Zandi’s Vicious Cycle Index now puts recession odds near 48% over the next year.
👷 The warning is coming from the labor market, not the stock market or GDP headlines.
📊 The labor force participation rate has fallen steadily, meaning more working-age Americans are leaving the job market entirely.
🏥 Without health care hiring, Zandi says the US economy would already be losing jobs.
⚠️ Tariffs are cutting into company profits and household purchasing power, freezing hiring across major sectors.
🚫 The immigration crackdown is shrinking the workforce, reducing output, and weakening future tax revenue.
🔁 The deeper pattern is clear: America’s economy is being weakened by overlapping policy shocks that feed into one another.
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