Gorton and Denton prediction: parties just hundreds of votes apart
Gorton and Denton is, in many ways, a tale of two constituencies. One half is more diverse, sits closer to Manchester proper, and appears to lean Green. The other is predominantly white and working class, and on paper leans toward Reform.
When political observers travel up from London and focus on only one part of the seat, they often leave with a distorted sense of the contest. The likeliest split outcome is straightforward enough: Gorton and its surrounding neighbourhoods breaking Green, Denton Reform. Yet such a divide would reveal little about the overall winner in what has become a ferocious three-way by-election battle.
In January, the forecasting site Britain Predicts described Gorton and Denton as Reform’s to lose. Its model put Reform on 32 per cent, Labour on 26 per cent, and the Greens in a solid third on 22 per cent. But election models have limits. They are often grounded in robust national data, but they do not rely on large samples of residents in a single constituency. Since January, there are several factors with which we can update our predictions.
In the first place, national polling has, since mid-January, shown marginal movement toward Labour and the Greens at Reform’s expense.
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In addition, the tight and high-profile nature of the race might also produce a “squeeze” effect. In close-fought contests, smaller parties often underperform their polling because voters gravitate toward perceived frontrunners, where their vote seems more likely to make a difference. The “squeeze” measure in the forecast below assumes a gentle compression of support toward parties seen to be excelling.
Another significant factor is the absence of a pro-Gaza independent. Voters inclined to such candidates tend, in their absence, to vote Green. In fact they favour Zack Polanski’s party, on net figures, by a margin of more than three to one.
Finally, there is a new Omnisis constituency poll, whose results can be fed into the model.
Here is the updated model. Furthest left are the predictions made in January 2021. In the subsequent columns are the effects of the new factors, with positive numbers representing a shift towards the Greens, and negative numbers a shift towards Labour. Furthest right are the new predictions.
The result is a strikingly tight forecast for Gorton and Denton: Green on 31 per cent, Reform on 30 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent.
Under the bonnet there are also turnout assumptions. The model expects 37,300 votes to be cast, up from 36,600 in 2024. In practice that puts the Greens on course for 11,500 votes, Reform 11,300, and Labour 10,900.
A few hundred votes separate first from third.
Because this model now has three parties competing for a seat instead of the customary two, the effects of tactical voting are harder to quantify. If the Greens are emphatically seen by the voters as the tactical voting preference, they should win the seat emphatically. If Labour are seen as the emphatic choice to beat back Reform, they should eke out a narrow win.
Reform’s ceiling appears lower than that of both rivals. But Labour’s floor is the lowest of all, and significant unknowns remain.
The race is balanced on a knife-edge. On paper, the Greens lead. But there are credible paths to Labour reaching 13,000 votes – and equally plausible routes to the party languishing in a distant third. Reform could yet emerge through the middle.
In Gorton and Denton, a result that could shape the trajectory of the British left for a generation remains, for now, anyone’s guess.
[Further reading: The Gorton and Denton by-election is anyone’s call]
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