(Conversation recorded on June 18th, 2026)
This year's projected Super El Niño forming in the Pacific could become one of the strongest climate oscillations in over a century. As regions prepare for the effects, and continue to adapt to extreme heat waves, intensifying storms, accelerating ice loss, and increasingly erratic rainfall, scientists and citizens alike are questioning what our new normal will look like under accelerated global heating. From climate basics to unfolding atmospheric research, what do we know about the trajectory our climate is currently on, and what gaps of knowledge still need to be filled?
In this episode, Nate is joined by earth scientist and thermodynamicist Tad Patzek for an exploration of the mechanics and mathematics of global heating itself. Tad explains why CO₂ has such an outsized effect in contrast to its small concentration, how water vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect, and why climate models sometimes get things wrong. His new research, currently under peer review at Geophysical Research Letters, identifies a declining Earth albedo as an additional accelerant of warming over the past 26 years. Combined with accelerating ocean heat absorption, melting ice sheets, and the dynamics of an approaching Super El Niño, Tad argues the warming curve itself may be bending upward.
Is the projected Super El Niño a signal of more extreme climatic swings to come? What sort of research is being done to explore and predict climate feedback dynamics that are only partly understood? And if the warming curve is indeed bending upward, what does it mean to plan, prepare, or adapt when the system itself may be moving faster than our models anticipated?
About Tad Patzek:
Tad Patzek is Professor Emeritus of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering at the Earth Sciences Division and Director of the Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Research Center in KAUST, Saudi Arabia. Formerly, he was the Lois K. and Richard D. Folger Leadership Professor and Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at The University of Texas at Austin. Additionally, he was previously a Professor of Geoengineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Berkeley, he was a researcher at Shell Development, a research company managed for 20 years by M. King Hubbert. He is also a full Presidential Professor in Poland, which is the highest honor, and also served as a member of the DOI Macondo Well Advisory Committee.
Patzek’s current research involves mathematical and numerical modeling of earth systems with emphasis on fluid flow in soils and rocks that can be hydrofractured. He is working on the thermodynamics and ecology of human survival, and food and energy supply for humanity. His current emphasis is the use of unconventional natural gas as a fuel bridge to the possible new energy supply schemes for the world. Patzek is a coauthor of over 400 papers and reports, and most recently, he has cumulated his research into his upcoming book Thermal Power and Climate Change: A Data-Driven Analysis of Cause and Effect, 1800-2100 (Preprint available now)
Show Notes and More:
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/225-tad-patzek
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0:00 Introduction
4:48 CO2 Basics
10:53 Does CO2 Lead Warming
13:04 Past High CO2 Worlds
15:00 Oceans as Heat Sink
16:11 El Niño Explained
22:03 Super El Niño Risks
25:41 Cumulative Vs. Annual Emissions
29:48 Warming Acceleration Model
33:41 Albedo and CERES Satellites
39:03 Oceans Delay the Pain
41:13 1.5°C Vs. Climate Averages
43:18 Where We Stabilize
45:09 Invisible Slow Disasters
46:52 Sea Level Reality
48:01 How Heat Domes Form
50:26 Deadly Heat Wave Toll
52:07 Antarctica Shock Event
55:15 Tipping Points And Fractures
1:00:06 Science Vs. Power
1:08:48 Denial And The Puzzle
1:14:42 Losing Climate Data
1:18:42 No Regret Actions
1:21:17 Next Research Frontiers
1:24:22 Credits
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