Who will win the Scottish Parliament election?
The 2026 Scottish Parliamentary election, scheduled for Thursday 7 May, is a contest that feels both familiar in outcome and unpredictable in detail.
Polls and projections suggest the Scottish National Party remains on course to finish as the largest party at Holyrood. Under John Swinney, the SNP has seen its support fall from previous highs following its difficult performance in the 2024 general election. Even so, it retains a clear lead over its rivals and is expected to hold on to most of its seats – albeit with a notably reduced vote share.
Beneath the familiar overall result lies a sharper uncertainty. Anas Sarwar’s Labour Party, once buoyed by a resurgence in 2024, now faces a more challenging environment. It has lost the momentum which saw it briefly overtaking the SNP in votes and seats at Westminster. Decisions taken by the UK government under Keir Starmer are widely considered to have dampened Labour’s prospects in Scotland. Sarwar’s own public criticism of Starmer has added another layer of uncertainty, and with limited polling available, the scale of Labour’s support remains unclear.
The race for second place is now one of the defining features of the election. In previous cycles, the Scottish Conservatives – once led by Ruth Davidson – secured that position with strong unionist backing. In 2026, however, the party appears to be in steep decline, with forecasts suggesting it could struggle to reach even ten seats.
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Into that vacuum has stepped Reform, led by Nigel Farage. The party has surged from relative obscurity in Scotland to polling at around a fifth of the vote. While constituency victories remain unlikely, Reform is expected to capitalise on the regional list system, with projections indicating it could return more than a dozen MSPs – marking a significant new presence in Holyrood.
The Scottish Greens are also expected to make gains. Standing in only a handful of constituencies, the party has focused its efforts on the list vote, where it is projected to achieve its strongest-ever result, potentially electing a dozen or more MSPs. It is also targeting select constituencies, including Edinburgh Central and parts of Glasgow, in pursuit of a breakthrough first-past-the-post victory.
According to the Britain Predicts model, the overall balance of power is unlikely to shift dramatically. A pro-independence majority – comprising the SNP and Greens – is forecast to be retained, allowing the current governing bloc to continue. But the fragmentation of the opposition vote and the emergence of Reform point to a changing political landscape.
[Further reading: Scottish Labour’s campaign is already starting to fall apart]
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