Economy ‘highly vulnerable’ to a jobs shock
Ireland’s multinational-led, export-oriented economy has grown strongly since Brexit and Covid, but is “highly vulnerable” to a jobs shock, the ESRI has warned.
The think-tank’s latest Economic Outlook says the “significant reliance” on multinational corporations for employment and corporate tax revenues is the main driver behind the risks, even though these corporations make substantial positive contributions to the economy.
“The current state of the economy is highly vulnerable to external risks in a pessimistic global economic environment, driven by evolving US trade policy and global geopolitical uncertainty,” it said.
Under a baseline scenario where the economy is assumed to grow along its current trajectory without experiencing significant shocks, gross national income (GNI) is projected to grow by 2.3% a year until 2030 and by 2.1% a year to 2035.
Trump’s threat to bring pharmaceutical companies could result in a 10% reduction in the Irish workforce. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
However, in an alternate universe, if US president Donald Trump’s threat to bring pharmaceutical companies back to the US bears fruit, it would result in a 10% reduction in the Irish workforce, while GNI could drop by 1.5%.
