Minister told ‘headwinds’ are set to impact housing targets
Minister for Housing James Browne was warned that supply “headwinds” will impact on housing targets prior to a dip in planning permissions, writes Craig Hughes.
An analysis of planning permission, commencement data and sectoral forecasts by the Irish Daily Mail shows that housing output will increase in 2026 but will fall again in 2027.
The briefing documents were provided to Minister Browne by officials ahead of his trip in March to the controversial Marché International des Professionnels de l’Immobilier (MIPIM) event in Cannes and released to Sinn Féin’s finance spokesman, Pearse Doherty.
Mr Doherty said that it is clear “the Government is on course to miss their housing targets by a country mile”.
There are significant concerns about the pipeline for new homes from 2027 onwards, while developers have said that inflation, which is being fuelled by the war in Iran, is affecting decisions on whether to proceed with projects into next year and 2028.
A large property developer said that significant “caution” is being applied and that the Government’s housing targets are “under threat”.
“The whole pricing situation is concerning; people are taking great care before committing to new contracts.
“It’s actually very difficult to know. We will all continue to do business, but a lot of caution is applied,” they said.
They added that supply in 2027 and 2028 was under threat, remarking: “Targets are challenging anyway, but they’re even more challenging now.”
They also said construction firms were struggling to maintain profit margins on contracts signed last year to deliver homes, stating: “The terms are very challenging with the changes that are happening, but when you’ve committed, you’ve committed, that’s it.”
The documents note that there are continuing viability challenges, in particular around apartment building.
The officials wrote: “Viability challenges arise when the anticipated cost of building a home exceeds the anticipated price it can be sold for.
“The presence of a widespread and sizable viability challenge for apartment building has been a consistent message of sectoral analysis and commentary from reputable, authoritative sources.”
The documents say that internal analyses by the Departments of Housing and Finance “confirm that apartment viability challenges are real”.
The officials warned of challenges to meeting supply targets and warned that planning permissions needed to increase.
“There are headwinds in relation to supply going forward which will need to be monitored and addressed in order to ensure the pipeline continues to increase. Of particular note are the numbers of planning permissions in the system, which need to increase over the next year,” they wrote.
Latest data shows that there is planning permission for 41,500 units nationwide.
Housing commencements, which are notices by builders of an intention to begin development, are trailing significantly behind the levels to meet the Government’s housing targets of an average of 50,000 new homes per year between 2025 and 2030.
Minister for Housing James Browne was warned that supply “headwinds” will impact on housing targets
There were 36,284 homes built in 2025, with an expectation that around 40,000 will be built this year.
A spokesman for the Department of Housing said that the latest Central Statistics Office (CSO) completion data showed almost 8,000 new homes were built in the first quarter of 2026 and “that the pace of home building continues to move in the right direction”.
“The Government is focused on maintaining this progress, making whatever changes are necessary to push forward and ensure continued growth in housing supply for all those who need it,” he said.
Photo: Housing Minister James Browne. Photo: Sasko Lazarov/© RollingNews.ie
