2026 market outlook: Slower returns, stickier rates and rising political risk
The majority of analysts and investment banks expect decent equity returns over the course of 2026 – albeit at a reduced pace than in previous years. The consensus view is that the US Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, while avoiding a recession. Heavy bond issuance and rising term premia are expected to keep long-end yields at high/sticky levels. The US dollar (USD) is expected to weaken modestly, reflecting a decline in its short-term interest rate profile. Commodities analysts expect a two-speed outlook, with industrial metals and energy transition metals (copper, etc.) outperforming, while oil prices should continue…
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