Reddit Stock (RDDT) Watch: Weekend Recap, Fresh Analyst Targets, and What to Know Before the Next Market Open
NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 4:02 p.m. ET — Market closedReddit, Inc. (NYSE: RDDT) heads into the next U.S. trading session with Wall Street’s 2026 bull case still centered on two themes—advertising momentum and the company’s fast-growing role in AI data licensing—while weekend research notes and options activity keep the stock on many traders’ radar.With U.S. exchanges closed on Sunday, the latest actionable signals for investors come from Friday’s close, the past 48 hours of analyst commentary, and recent filings that can shape sentiment when markets reopen Monday.Reddit stock today: where RDDT left off on FridayReddit shares last sat around $225.77, essentially flat versus the prior close, according to the company’s investor relations quote page and market data feeds. [1]On Friday (Dec. 26), RDDT traded in a relatively tight band for a high-beta name, with data showing an intraday range roughly $220–$226 before finishing near $226. [2]The bigger context is that Reddit’s stock has cooled since its September peak. Barron’s reported the shares peaked at a record closing high of $270.71 in September and have been “stuck” in recent months even after strong quarterly results. [3]What’s new in the last 24–48 hoursNews flow over the weekend has been lighter on company-issued announcements, but there were three notable developments investors are likely to see referenced Monday morning:1) A fresh valuation debate (Seeking Alpha)A Seeking Alpha note published Sunday rated Reddit a “hold,” arguing that despite strong execution, the stock offers a limited margin of safety versus large-cap alternatives with similar growth narratives. [4]2) Options traders leaned in on Friday (Stock Options Channel)One of the more immediate, market-facing signals came from the derivatives market: Stock Options Channel flagged notable options volume in RDDT on Friday, with total options volume reported in the tens of thousands of contracts, and elevated activity around the $230 strike call expiring Dec. 26. [5]That doesn’t “predict” direction by itself, but it can matter for Monday’s tape—especially in year-end liquidity conditions—because heavy positioning around nearby strikes sometimes amplifies early-session moves.3) Institutional position updates surfaced (MarketBeat)MarketBeat highlighted a recent disclosure showing Carnegie Investment Counsel increased its Reddit position during the third quarter (a backward-looking filing, but still sentiment-relevant for many investors scanning ownership trends). [6]Analyst forecasts: the bull case is still led by Needham’s $300 targetThe most-cited Reddit call late this year has been Needham’s bullish stance. In coverage published this past week, Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating and a $300 price target, making Reddit a top pick for 2026 and pointing to the platform’s advertiser appeal—high-intent communities and comparatively low ad clutter—as a durable advantage. [7]Why this matters for RDDT shareholders: Needham’s thesis isn’t just “more ads.” It’s “better ads” because Reddit’s intent-heavy communities can convert well for certain categories (tech, gaming, consumer electronics, and discovery-driven shopping), which can support higher-value ad formats over time. [8]AI licensing is the second pillar—and it’s tied to litigation riskNeedham’s view also leans on Reddit’s growing monetization of its data for AI training. Recent coverage has cited Reddit generating over $100 million annually from licensing arrangements with AI players such as OpenAI and Alphabet/Google, with the possibility of that figure expanding. [9]At the same time, the “AI upside” narrative is linked to enforcement: Reuters reported Reddit sued Perplexity in October, alleging scraping of Reddit data to train AI systems, and noted a similar lawsuit against Anthropic filed earlier in 2025 remains ongoing. [10]Consensus price targets: what the broader Street is implyingAcross Wall Street, consensus targets vary depending on the dataset and update timing, but the clustering is informative:TipRanks: average target around $253.72 (with a wide range between the highest and lowest published targets). [11]MarketWatch: average target around $250.44, with an “Overweight” average recommendation and roughly 29 analyst ratings tracked. [12]MarketBeat: consensus target around $230.28, with the high end cited as $325 and the low end at $75. [13]The takeaway: while the headline $300 calls drive attention, the “middle of the Street” sits closer to the mid-$200s, and some services show a much tighter implied upside from current levels—consistent with why valuation has become a weekend talking point. [14]Fundamentals investors keep coming back toEven in a weekend market, Reddit’s stock story remains rooted in fundamentals—especially the last reported quarter and the company’s scale metrics.Scale and engagementReddit’s investor relations overview reports 116 million Daily Active Uniques and 443M+ Weekly Active Uniques (as of Sept. 30, 2025), alongside 100K+ active communities and 23B+ posts & comments. [15]Profitability inflection and forward guidanceIn its third-quarter 2025 report, Reddit said revenue rose 68% year over year to $585 million, with ad revenue up 74% to $549 million, and it posted net income of $163 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $236 million (40% margin). [16]Just as important for forward-looking investors, Reddit guided for fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $655–$665 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $275–$285 million. [17]Those numbers help explain why the stock can command a premium multiple—while also explaining why any sign of slowing (user growth, ad demand, or pricing) tends to trigger sharp reactions.Risks and pressure points to watchA balanced read into Monday’s session includes the key risks investors and analysts are currently weighing:Valuation sensitivity: Reddit trades at a rich multiple by traditional measures, leaving less room for execution missteps—one reason some weekend analysis has turned more cautious. [18]Short interest overhang: Barron’s noted short interest above 14% of shares, which can increase volatility in both directions around catalysts. [19]AI enforcement uncertainty: Reddit’s litigation with AI-related entities is part of a broader industry shift toward data access and licensing—potentially supportive long-term, but uncertain in timing and outcome. [20]If you’re watching RDDT before Monday’s open: a practical checklistWith the exchange closed today, here’s what investors typically want on their screens before the next regular session:Any new analyst notes or rating changes (especially follow-ons to Needham’s high-profile 2026 call). [21]Premarket indicators and peer sympathy moves in ad-driven social and media names (sentiment can spill over quickly to RDDT).Options positioning and open-interest hotspots after Friday’s notable activity (which can affect early-session volatility). [22]Regulatory/legal headlines tied to scraping, licensing, or platform policies—because the AI monetization narrative is a key leg of the bull case. [23]Liquidity conditions: the final days of the year can bring thinner volumes, which can exaggerate moves on otherwise modest headlines.Bottom lineAs markets reopen, Reddit stock remains a tug-of-war between strong operating momentum (ads, profitability, and guidance) and an increasingly loud valuation debate, with Needham’s $300 target setting the optimistic benchmark and broader consensus targets clustering lower. [24]With no major Sunday corporate release, Monday’s early action in RDDT is likely to be driven by sentiment, positioning, and any fresh analyst commentary—especially after heightened options activity and weekend debate over whether the stock’s premium is still justified. [25]References1. investor.redditinc.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. seekingalpha.com, 5. www.stockoptionschannel.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.investors.com, 8. www.investors.com, 9. www.investors.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.marketwatch.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. investor.redditinc.com, 16. investor.redditinc.com, 17. investor.redditinc.com, 18. seekingalpha.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investors.com, 22. www.stockoptionschannel.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. investor.redditinc.com, 25. www.stockoptionschannel.com
