Crude oil prices (Brent & WTI) recovered toward the end of last week as concerns over the U.S. economic outlook eased. Previously released inflation data helped reduce fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would maintain a prolonged restrictive monetary policy stance, improving overall risk sentiment across financial markets. Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor OPEC+ production policy and geopolitical developments in the Middle East and other key regions, as supply risks and ongoing conflicts could disrupt global oil supplies and increase short-term price volatility.
For the week ahead (20–24 July 2026), market participants will closely watch key U.S. economic data, particularly the Manufacturing and Services PMI, the EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and U.S. Treasury yields, all of which are expected to influence oil prices. Stronger signs of demand recovery, combined with a larger-than-expected decline in crude inventories, could provide further upside for oil prices. However, a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields may limit gains in the near term.
In addition, investors will continue to monitor OPEC+ production decisions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as both remain key factors affecting global oil supply and short-term market volatility.
Brent Weekly Outlook (20–24 July 2026)
Weekly Outlook: Sideways with a Bullish Bias
Brent crude continues to maintain a bullish market structure following a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH) while trading above its ascending trendline, suggesting that buying momentum remains dominant despite resistance around $86.00–86.80.
If Brent successfully breaks above this resistance zone, the price could extend its rally toward $88.00, with the next upside target around $89.00.
However, failure to overcome resistance may encourage profit-taking, pushing prices back toward the Fair Value Gap (FVG) support area between $80.00–81.50 before buyers potentially re-enter the market.
Investors will continue to monitor the DXY, U.S. Treasury yields, EIA crude oil inventories, OPEC+ production policy, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East, as these are expected to remain the key drivers of Brent prices throughout the week.
Bullish Scenario: $88.00–89.00
Bearish Scenario: $81.50–80.00
WTI Weekly Outlook (20–24 July 2026)
Weekly Outlook: Sideways with a Bullish Bias
WTI crude continues to maintain a bullish market structure after confirming a Change of Character (CHoCH) and remains above its uptrend line, indicating that buyers continue to hold the upper hand. However, prices are still facing resistance around $81.00–81.70.
A confirmed breakout above this resistance zone could pave the way for a move toward $84.00, followed by the next upside target near $85.50.
On the downside, failure to break above resistance may trigger profit-taking, sending prices back toward the Fair Value Gap (FVG) support zone at $74.50–76.50 before another recovery attempt.
Traders will continue to monitor the DXY, U.S. Treasury yields, EIA crude oil inventory data, OPEC+ production policy, and Middle East geopolitical developments, as these remain the primary catalysts for oil prices this week.
Bullish Scenario: $84.00–85.50
Bearish Scenario: $76.50–74.50
