USDCAD – Rebound Setup Inside a Broader Downtrend

USDCAD remains under clear bearish pressure, with price continuing to print lower highs and lower lows after the recent decline from the 1.4200 area.

However, after this aggressive selloff, price is now stabilizing around the 1.4030 support zone, where short-term sellers may start taking profit and buyers could attempt a corrective rebound.

📈 Bullish Scenario

If 1.4030–1.4000 continues to hold as support, USDCAD may attempt a recovery toward:

1.4065 as the first short-term resistance
1.4080–1.4090 as the main upside target
Potential extension toward 1.4110 if momentum improves

This would still be considered a corrective bounce unless price starts reclaiming higher resistance levels more decisively.

📉 Bearish Scenario

If price loses the 1.4030 support and especially breaks below 1.4000, the broader downtrend may continue.

In that case, the next downside move could open the way toward:

1.3980
and possibly deeper continuation if bearish momentum accelerates

A breakdown below the recent base would invalidate the rebound idea.

🎯 Our View

At the moment, the broader structure is still bearish, but the pair is sitting on an important short-term support area.
Because of that, a technical bounce remains possible, with 1.4080 as the main recovery target, while 1.4000 remains the key invalidation level.

So in short:

Above 1.4030 → rebound scenario stays valid
Below 1.4000 → bearish continuation becomes more likely