BTC has rolled over from 65.7K on the 4H chart and is now selling off impulsively, currently trading at 62,890 after a -1% daily candle. The 1H trend is clearly bearish, with a series of lower highs since 65.0K and a deeply negative MACD (-360). On the 15M and 5M charts, the sell-off is accelerating, with the 5M MACD printing a fresh bearish crossover and showing no signs of bullish divergence. The broader weekly bear market continues to favor the short side. Even the strongest relief bounces are likely to run into supply around 63,400-63,600. Below 62,400, a relatively thin price zone opens the way toward the psychological 62,000 and 61,500 levels. Only a recovery and sustained hold above 63,600 would neutralize the short-term bearish outlook.
## Scenario 1 – Primary
**Short Reload on a Rebound Toward 62K**
**Probability:** 60%
Within the current bearish impulse, any rebound into the 63,300-63,600 supply zone is viewed as an opportunity to reload shorts. The downside targets remain the 62,000 magnet and, below that, 61,500. Confluence comes from the 1H downtrend, while the short-term oversold conditions on the 5M chart may provide a brief retracement for entry.
**① Entry**
Short at 63,300-63,600 (rebound into the supply zone) or on a retest of 62,700 after a confirmed breakdown.
**② Trigger**
A 15M candle close below 62,700, or a rejection/lower high below 63,600.
**Stop**
63,750 (above the supply zone).
**Targets**
* **T1:** 62,400
* **T2:** 62,000 ✦
* **T3:** 61,500
**Invalidation:**
A 1H candle close above 63,750, accompanied by a higher high, invalidates the short setup and shifts the outlook to Scenario 2 (reclaim long).
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## Scenario 2 – Alternative
**Reclaim Above 63,600 – Relief Bounce**
**Probability:** 40%
The oversold conditions on the 5M and 15M charts could fuel a relief rally if 62,700 holds and 63,600 is reclaimed. This remains a countertrend trade against the higher-timeframe trend, making tight risk management and modest profit targets essential.
**① Entry**
Long at 62,700-62,900 after confirmation of the reclaim.
**② Trigger**
A 15M candle close above 63,600 with rising volume.
**Stop**
62,550 (below the reclaim base).
**Targets**
* **T1:** 63,600
* **T2:** 64,000
* **T3:** 64,400
**Invalidation:**
A loss of 62,550 or a new low below 62,700 invalidates the long setup and reactivates Scenario 1 (continuation of the short trend).
Probabilities are subjective technical assessments and not guarantees. Triggers outweigh opinions—only trade after confirmation. This is not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management.
