Dublin-Central opinion poll likely to pile pressure on Fianna Fáil
A new Dublin Central by-election opinion poll is likely to place renewed pressure on Taoiseach Micheál Martin as it places Fianna Fáil’s candidate, John Stephens, at just 4%.
The poll, published by TG4 and The Irish Times last night, sent shockwaves through the party, which is due to hold its 100th-year Ard Fheis this evening.
Party rebels, who wish to topple Mr Martin as leader, say they believe the results will ‘give the TDs who have been sitting on their hands evidence’ that he should be removed.
A new Dublin Central by-election opinion poll is likely to place renewed pressure on Taoiseach Micheál Martin as it places Fianna Fáil’s candidate, John Stephens, at just 4%. Pic: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie
The poll puts Mr Stephens on just 4% of first-preference votes and 8% of second preferences, meaning it is unlikely he will feature in the final shake-up.
Both Government party candidates, Mr Stephens and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam, have also placed behind Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch, who is in third place at 14%.
Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan tops the opinion poll at 21%, while the Social Democrats’ Daniel Ennis – previously seen as the front runner – is in second, at 18%.
Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan. Pic: Conor Ó Mearáin/Collins Photo Agency
The Dublin Central and Galway West by-elections will take place in just seven days’ time and could see Mr Martin’s Government lose another seat on the Coalition benches in the Dáil.
But those in the party who wish to remove Mr Martin as leader admitted to Extra.ie last night that the Taoiseach will likely retain his position until next year.
‘All bets are off until January 1,’ one party source said. ‘With the EU presidency [from July 1 to December 31], it is now too late… Micheál is as safe as a house until January 1.’
Taoiseach Micheál Martin. Pic: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie
The rebel source added, however: ‘This will give lots of TDs who have been sitting on their hands evidence of what we’ve been talking about for the last two years.’
Mr McAdam, seeking to win the seat of his party colleague Paschal Donohoe, has received 13% in the new poll as sits in fourth place. The result is likely to please Fine Gael leaders, offering proof that Mr McAdam, the current Lord Mayor of Dublin, could gain a Dáil seat in the future.
Green Party councillor Janet Horner sits on 8%, right-wing Independent Malachy Steenson stands on 7%, and Labour’s Ruth O’Dea is at 6%. People Before Profit’s Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin has placed ninth, behind Mr Stephens, at 3%.
Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam. Pic: Colin Keegan/Collins Photos
The remaining candidates polled 1% or less. Other Fianna Fáil sources stressed last night that it is ‘still early doors’ and that the party ‘always does better on polling day’.
‘The only poll that matters is the one on polling day,’ one source told Extra.ie. ‘It’s important to remember that John Stephens is a new councillor, only being elected in 2024.’
Others pointed to the lack of Fianna Fáil representation, and historic poor electoral results, in Dublin Central since the retirement of former taoiseach Bertie Ahern.
Mr Ahern’s recent comments on immigration – in which he claimed to be ‘worried about Africans’ arriving in the country – may have also impacted Mr Stephens’s campaign.
Last night’s poll shows the Social Democrats’ Mr Ennis and the Green Party’s Janet Horner performing well in terms of second-preference votes, receiving 15% and 14%, respectively.
Both candidates are popular elected councillors and may cater towards a soft-left vote, which is considered strong in the more suburban areas of the constituency.
The poll was carried out by Ipsos B&A for The Irish Times and TG4 and was conducted through face-to-face interviews among a sample of 659 adults between May 7 and 12.
The margin for error is plus or minus four percentage points.
