Bitcoin price analysis: Some indicators are still going the wrong way, challenging the bullish $70,000 holdout narrative
What do you call a market that consistently shrugs off headlines that usually send it tumbling? You call it resilient with a strong underlying demand support.That's the bitcoin story in recent weeks, as it the cryptocurrency held firm around $70,000 even as the Iran war rages, oil prices surge, and Fed rate-cut bets evaporate. This kind of defiance screams bullishness.But hang on, some key indicators are still heading the wrong way, throwing a wrench into that bullish interpretation.The first indicator is the Coinbase Premium, which measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase, a Nasdaq-listed Exchange, and on the offshore giant Binance. Typically, a strong positive premium means U.S. institutional investors are bidding more aggressively than their global counterparts. A strong Coinbase premium has regularly featured during bull runs, including bitcoin's first run to $100,000 in late 2024.But right now, the Coinbase Premium is at its most negative in over a month, according to data source Coinglass. In other words, BTC trades at a discount on Coinbase, indicating a relatively softer demand from U.S. investors. The discount reappeared on March 19 and has been growing since.Another key indicator – bitcoin ETF inflows, also a proxy for institutional demand – has been underwhelming lately.The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.53 billion in net inflows this month, ending a three-month streak of outflows, per SoSoValue. But nearly $1.3 billion arrived in the first half, with the pace slowing considerably to just $195 million since. Analysts have repeatedly stressed that consistent, strong inflows are crucial for Bitcoin prices to gain bullish momentum.Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus Exchange, put it best: "The signal here is that institutional demand has not disappeared. However, it is selective and less linear than in the strongest accumulation phases."As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at around $70,000, according to CoinDesk data.
