Qualcomm Hits Oversold Territory as Reddit Sentiment Crashes Below 30
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It hasn’t gone unnoticed by the broader market that Shares of Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) fell sharply in early February, coinciding with a noticeable shift in retail investor sentiment on platforms like Reddit and X from cautiously optimistic to decidedly bearish. The chipmaker reported Q1 revenue of $12.3 billion, a record for the quarter, yet the stock has tumbled 18% year-to-date. The disconnect stems from weak forward guidance, driven by a global memory chip shortage that’s constraining smartphone manufacturers and forcing them to scale back production plans.
On the plus side, Qualcomm’s automotive segment delivered $1.10 billion in revenue, up 15% year-over-year, but this positive was overshadowed by management’s Q2 guidance of only $10.2 to $11 billion in revenue, well below Wall Street expectations. CEO Cristiano Amon attributed the shortfall to memory supply constraints affecting handsets, particularly among Chinese OEMs who are adjusting build plans downward to manage cost pressures.
Reddit Turns Pessimistic on Qualcomm’s Near-Term Outlook
Mentions of Qualcomm on Reddit’s r/stocks and r/WallStreetBets have shifted from bullish to bearish in recent weeks. Sentiment scores dropped from 65 pre-earnings to a range of 20 to 36 post-earnings, reflecting growing skepticism about the company’s ability to navigate near-term headwinds. Retail traders are voicing three primary concerns:
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This infographic provides a snapshot of Qualcomm’s investment landscape, highlighting a significantly bearish social sentiment score and key factors impacting its stock performance, despite a record Q1 revenue.
Memory chip shortages are diverting supply to AI data centers, leaving smartphone manufacturers scrambling and delaying handset launches
Weak Q2 guidance signals that the memory crisis will persist longer than initially expected, pressuring Qualcomm’s core handset business
Despite record revenue, earnings per share actually fell back over the last year, indicating operational challenges beneath the surface
One trader posted about their QCOM earnings play, writing about the cautious sentiment around the stock’s near-term prospects. The post, which received 21 upvotes and 4 comments, reflects prevailing skepticism among retail traders regarding Qualcomm’s memory-constrained guidance.
Oversold Technicals and Analyst Support Suggest a Floor
Despite the negativity, technical indicators show Qualcomm is deeply oversold. The stock’s RSI hit 21 on February 5, the lowest level in years, and has since recovered slightly to 33. Analysts maintain a consensus “Buy” rating with an average price target of $168.53, implying nearly 20% upside. For context, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) is down just 2% year-to-date, highlighting how Qualcomm’s struggles are company-specific rather than sector-wide. Investors should closely monitor trends in memory supply and Chinese smartphone demand. If the memory crunch eases, Qualcomm’s strong automotive and IoT growth could drive a sharp recovery.
