Bond market alert for Labour as investors brace for a lurch to the left in No 10: MAGGIE PAGANO
When NatWest chief Paul Thwaite announced it was snapping up wealth manager Evelyn Partners, he was asked about the turmoil engulfing Sir Keir Starmer over the Mandelson psychodrama.Thwaite’s reply was straightforward: ‘What all businesses need, what consumers need, is stability, certainty and growth. 'They’re the conditions that create the right environment… so that’s what I would be looking for, that’s what any business leader would be looking for.’He is absolutely right, and he should know as the bank has endured a scandal or two. Stability, certainty and growth are exactly what businesses – and households – crave in an otherwise topsy-turvy world.Sadly, that’s not what we are going to get. You can’t blame Thwaite for being such an optimist but, unfortunately, the likelihood of getting any such fertile conditions any time soon, whether Starmer survives another day or hangs on for another few months, is pie in the sky.That’s the real crisis. Labour is in a mess because there is no overriding political philosophy or story to tell. Which is also why Labour MPs don’t appear to have a clue which way to turn. Voice of reason: NatWest chief exec Paul Thwaite says stability, certainty and growth are the three things businesses need most to thriveDo they replace Starmer with someone to the Left like Angela Rayner, who would spend and tax more? Or should they go for a Blue Labour, tough-on-immigration centrist such as Shabana Mahmood?Add in Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, Al Carns and others who have yet to show their hand, and you get a Jackson Pollock-style painting.Yet the markets do have a clue: investors in the gilts are back to demanding the ‘moron premium’ for buying UK bonds.The ten-year gilt yield – a main measure of how much it costs the Government to borrow – moved above 4.6 per cent again before easing. That’s the highest among G7 countries – even higher than France, which is facing similar upheavals.UK bond yields are not as high as levels reached during the Liz Truss reign and not at crisis point. But that will change if investors believe that a more Left-wing top team were to take charge, and one that was not so determined to bring down the Government’s debt-to-GDP ratio.About 30pc of UK debt is owned by foreign investors. So it’s all the more critical that Starmer, or his successor, starts showing a semblance of control or – shock horror! – brings in grown-up measures to restore confidence and kick-start growth.You can bet your bottom dollar, however, that whoever is in No10 is not smart enough to do this. Which means that it won’t be long before the bond market vigilantes demand an even higher price.Samurai SanaeOne leader who does have a gripping story is Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first woman prime minister, whose long-time heroine is Margaret Thatcher.The drum-playing, motorcycling, martial arts fan and former TV presenter has just taken her Liberal Democratic Party to a whopping victory, gaining most of the seats in the lower house of parliament. This means that Takaichi can now rule without bowing to the opposition parties.Japan’s stock markets certainly gave her historic victory a vote of confidence, with the Nikkei 225 reaching record highs on hopes that the election will finally bring stability and growth to a fragile economy.Takaichi pledged to cut tax, spend more on defence and boost the economy. Her critics say this is dangerous, and may lead to even higher borrowing costs.But Takaichi, who appeals as much to Japanese youngsters as older, more conservative voters, is well aware of the dangers. On declaring victory, Takaichi accepted that she bears the heavy responsibility of delivering on her promises.Now that’s a wise politician.River IslandBernard Lewis, founder of River Island and Chelsea Girl, is 100 today.Starting out in a shack on a bomb site in London, Lewis went on to become UK’s first vertically integrated fashion retailer who personally designed, directed, made and sold clothes under one roof.He still occasionally goes into the office, as does his wife, Vanessa. What a couple!DIY INVESTING PLATFORMSAJ BellAJ BellEasy investing and ready-made portfoliosHargreaves LansdownHargreaves LansdownFree fund dealing and investment ideasinteractive investorinteractive investorFlat-fee investing from £4.99 per monthFreetradeFreetradeInvesting Isa now free on basic planTrading 212Trading 212Free share dealing and no account feeAffiliate links: If you take out a product This is Money may earn a commission. These deals are chosen by our editorial team, as we think they are worth highlighting. This does not affect our editorial independence.Compare the best investing account for you
