Turning the Tide on Offshore Wind
Two decades ago, Ireland looked set to be a world leader in the offshore wind industry.
In May 2005, then Taoiseach Bertie Ahern proudly opened the Arklow Wind Bank.
The 25 megawatt (MW) development was relatively small, providing enough electricity for a few thousand homes.
But its real importance was symbolic — it was the first ever operational offshore wind farm in Irish waters.
Co-developed by GE Energy and Airtricity, Ireland’s largest renewable energy company, its main function was to serve as a pilot project and demonstrate what offshore wind energy was capable of.
Analysts hailed it as the start of a bright new future for Ireland, one where the island’s famous coastal gales would provide an everlasting stream of green energy.
Not only that, industry executives predicted that so great was the wind resource in Ireland, we could make a fortune selling excess power to other nations.
“We have enough wind energy available in the North Atlantic to provide power for the whole of Europe,” the late Eddie O’Connor, then chief executive of Airtricity, boldly proclaimed.
Unfortunately, things haven’t quite panned out this way.
Just over 20 years have passed and Arklow Bank phase 1 is set to be decommissioned, having reached the end of its operational life cycle.
We’re still waiting for Ireland’s second offshore wind farm.
Justin Moran, head of external affairs at Wind Energy Ireland
The government has set ambitious goals to have several massive developments generating power by 2030, but those targets will be missed.
We were maybe a bit too ambitious. That’s as a country, not just as a government,” says Rob Costello, capital projects lead with PwC Ireland.
However, there is hope as the industry feels development is finally picking up.
So as we come to the back half of the 2020s, what is the state of Ireland’s offshore wind sector?
First off, let’s set out the high-level targets. In 2021, the government announced plans to have 5 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind generating electricity by 2030.
For some context on what those numbers mean, it’s estimated that 1MW worth of offshore wind can generate enough power to meet the annual electricity needs of around 750 homes.
One gigawatt is equal to 1000MW, so 5GW is 5000MW.
This means that 5GW of offshore wind would meet a massive amount of Ireland’s annual electricity demand.
They would also help the country meet our EU emissions reduction goals. However, following through is where things get tricky.
“We’re just still seeing a lot of delays and hurdles,” says Stephanie Unsworth, senior associate at Aurora Energy Research.
She says this is likely a reflection of how “nascent” the Irish offshore market is.
“This is the first time we’ve gone through the whole big commercial [bidding] process. The first time [the government] has done an auction,” she says.
“The first time the planning board has had to seriously think about having big wind farms in Dublin Bay. So it has kind of been a lot slower than we wanted, but it’s still progressing.”
All in, it takes about 10 years for an offshore wind farm to go through every stage of development.
This meant that when the government announced in 2021 it would hit 5GW by 2030, only projects which were ready to start the development process had a shot at being ready. Six proposed offshore wind farms fell into that category.
These all went into a state auction called ORESS 1.
When starting up, most renewable industries need some kind of state support.
Offshore wind is no exception and the state support in this case is the ORESS (Offshore Renewable Electricity Support Scheme).
Through ORESS, the government runs competitive auctions.
Here, offshore wind projects bid to supply electricity at the lowest price they can operate sustainably.
Those that win get a contract which guarantees the state will buy the electricity they sell.
Ireland held the first main ORESS round in 2023. Of the six bidders, four got contracts and these have a combined capacity of 3.1GW.
Two, with a capacity of almost 1.2GW, lost out.
These six projects, with a capacity of about 4.3GW, were the only offshore wind farms which had a realistic chance of being delivered by 2030.
You might notice that their combined capacity adds up to less than 5GW.
This is why Ireland’s target cannot be hit. It should also be factored in that planned projects essentially never have a 100 per cent completion rate.
“With onshore wind, about 50 per cent of the ORESS winners were delivered,” says Rob Costello.
“You would be hopeful that the success rate for offshore would be higher, but there’s a risk that not all projects will be developed.”
One case in point is Sceirde Rocks. Sceirde Rocks was meant to be a 450MW development off the coast of Connemara.
However, last April the developers pulled the plug.
Why isn’t exactly clear. Various reports say the companies behind the project didn’t realise how difficult it would be to build in the Atlantic, where it would be buffeted by strong winds and waves.
Whatever the reason, it means we’re now down to five projects, with a combined 3.8GW, which have a decent shot at 2030.
But another challenge is planning delays.
Unsworth says that going through the planning process takes between one and a half and three years in most European countries.
“We were all hoping that Ireland would be in that one-and-a-halfyear range. But it’s coming in [more] towards that three years instead,” she says.
Take Codling Wind Park, a 1.3GW development which is the largest offshore project in Ireland’s pipeline.
The developers lodged their planning application in September 2024, hoping for a response by the end of 2025.
However, An Coimisiún Pleanála issued a 70-page RFI (Request for Information) seeking extra detail on areas such as habitat loss.
The deadline for the developers to come back is May 2026. Given how detailed the response will be, it almost certainly means that a final planning decision on Codling won’t happen until 2027.
Justin Moran, head of external affairs at Wind Energy Ireland, says this has caused frustration for some developers.
He believes many of the issues raised in the RFI could have been straightened out in pre-planning consultations.
“It’s a lesson. State agencies should have the resourcing and expertise to iron out these issues, even before projects go in [for planning],” he says.
However, Moran also says there is plenty of cause for optimism. A major one is ‘Tonn Nua’.
The idea with the ORESS scheme is that the state would regularly hold auctions. This would provide a steady source of reliable contracts for the offshore sector, allowing it to get up and running.
After ORESS 1, there was a delay as the government tweaked the auction system. Before, developers selected sites to build at.
Now the government chooses. The idea is that because a site is effectively government-approved, it should get through the planning system faster and be less susceptible to falling to legal challenges.
Last month, the government announced that a joint venture between the ESB and Denmark’s Orsted had won the rights to build a 900MW farm off the coast of Waterford.
Rob Costello, capital projects lead with PwC Ireland
It won’t make 2030 and likely won’t be generating electricity until the mid-2030s. But the hope is that it’s a sign there will be more regular auctions for state contracts, giving investors more confidence in the Irish market.
This feeds into why, although all analysts agree that Ireland won’t meet its 2030 5GW goal, there is optimism that the sector is finally finding its footing, as the five remaining ORESS 1 bidders work their way through planning.
“The focus now is on doing whatever we can to get the existing projects moving forward,” Justin Moran says.
“We have an enormous opportunity, and we can use our renewable resources to generate more electricity than Ireland will need.”
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