The golden era for Ireland and France is now over
As the Autumn Nations series winds down for 2025, European rugby has been dealt a re-ordering with both Ireland and France declining from where they were a few years ago.Ireland and France were at their peak across 2021 and 2022, with both nations winning at the highest rates of all international teams in the World Cup cycle leading into 2023.They weren’t just winning Six Nations titles, they routinely beat New Zealand and South Africa in the Autumn.New Zealand were heavily defeated in November 2021 by both nations, before the infamous 2022 Irish series in New Zealand. South Africa were beaten by both in the 2022 Autumn series.However, peaking mid-cycle last time didn’t deliver the Rugby World Cup a year later in 2023, when the All Blacks and Springboks defied the records to knock both European powers out in the quarter-finals.Two years later both Ireland and France are below where they were heading into 2023.The post-Sexton era for Ireland started well in 2024 but came to a grinding halt when they were beaten by the All Blacks 23-13 in 2024. Since then, they have slipped in standing from the world number one ranking to fourth.France’s World Cup hangover was immediate in 2024 but they built from there and finished the year on a high with a one-point win over the All Blacks. But France have slumped to a 6-5 record in 2025, despite winning the 2025 Six Nations.A second and third string squad were sent to New Zealand as cannon fodder and admirably competed, but the result was a 3-nil series loss. A Dupont-less France subsequently lost to the Springboks 32-15 despite having a man up due to a permanent red card.This was a gut-wrenching embarrassing loss for French, highlighting how far you can fall when you don’t take international rugby seriously.Some will say the New Zealand series doesn’t matter to France. We’ve heard just how important the Top 14 is to them.They will have to travel to Australia in 2027 in order to win their first Rugby World Cup.With seemingly no interest of taking their top squad outside of Europe, they will play for the first time together in the southern hemisphere at the event.The 2025 New Zealand series is a huge missed opportunity for the likes of Antoine Dupont, Thomas Ramos, and Romain Ntamack to conquer new territory. Because winning a Rugby World Cup is exactly that, new territory.There remains an arrogance within French rugby which will likely prevent them from winning the Rugby World Cup again, again, and again and decisions like that are why. They will be turning up to the exam with no mock test, ignoring the chance to prepare the best they can.Mismanagement will cost France, some way, some how in 2027. It’s ingrained in them.Ireland are in a different position but equally troubling. Their aging squad is in the beginning of the decline, with signs of regression on defence.They finished with a 4-1 win-loss record in both of the last two Six Nations campaigns, winning the title in 2024 and finishing third in 2025. They were both strong campaigns, with 2025 decided on points difference.But in 2025 both France and England scored far more tries, 30 and 25, to Ireland’s 17. The year before Ireland had scored 19, not too dissimilar.Defensively in 2024 Ireland only conceded seven tries in the Six Nations, while in 2025 they conceded double that with 14.Against New Zealand and South Africa over the last two years, Ireland has scored just 13 points in each of the three Tests while losing by double digit margins.The defence can’t hold up against the big boys and their attack is not at a level to go toe-to-toe in a high scoring match.They were blown away in Dublin by a power-packed injection of forwards from the bench. Five fresh forwards came on and France scored 27 unanswered points.Compounding matters is the 2027 Rugby World Cup will not suit the Irish. The tournament starts in late September in Australia, in hot conditions, and gets progressively hotter by November.The pool stages of the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan are a valid comparison, where Ireland stumbled and faltered, failing to top their pool against the hosts Japan and Scotland. It was humid, muggy like playing in a sauna during that stage of the tournament.Statistically they are showing regression, towards an event where conditions are stacked against them.Ireland and France had their best periods in the modern era from 2020-2023, and both failed to make the most of it. While both are still strong, they both are clearly below where they were just a few years ago.The only silver lining is that they are not peaking mid-cycle, but the bad news is that Australia hosting the next Rugby World Cup suits neither of them.The golden era looks over after a short four-year period. The next World Cup will be decided between New Zealand and South Africa.
