Donald Trump's tariffs 'could cost firms in NI £100m'
John Campbell and Jayne McCormackBBC News NIReutersPresident Trump has announced a new round of tariffsNorthern Ireland goods entering the US will face an 10% tariff from Thursday after President Donald Trump imposed a sweeping round of protectionist trade measures.Companies in Northern Ireland sell goods valued at around £1.5bn to the US every year, with a concentration in pharmaceuticals and industrial machinery.Northern Irish goods will be covered by the tariff which Trump has imposed on the UK as a whole.Goods from the Republic of Ireland will be hit with a 20% tariff as part of measures Trump has imposed on the EU.Among EU countries, Ireland is the most reliant on the US as an export market.In 2024, almost a third of the country's total exports were to the US - worth €73bn (£61bn).Tariffs are effectively taxes applied to goods imported from other countries.Governments impose tariffs in the hope of protecting local manufacturers from international competition.'Declaration of economic independence'Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said: "My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day."He added that it will be remembered as the day American industry was "reborn" and the day America was "made wealthy again"."This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, of American history," he said. "It's our declaration of economic independence."NI 'at the forefront' of decisionsUK and Irish leaders braced for Trump tariffsEarlier on Wednesday, Martin said it was clear the scale of the tariffs would be "very significant in European terms".Meanwhile Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK government was "looking carefully" at the prospect of any retaliatory tariffs the EU may announce in response to the tariffs, and the impact they might have in Northern Ireland.The prime minister was asked by Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Gavin Robinson if the government was prepared to take steps to exempt Northern Ireland from any possible EU actions that could follow the tariff announcements in Washington DC."Northern Ireland will be at the forefront of all our decisions," he told the House of Commons.The UK government had expected that tariffs would be imposed on UK goods, despite trying to negotiate an exemption.How could the Trump tariffs affect Northern Ireland?Ulster University economist Esmond Birnie had estimated that tariffs of 20% on Northern Ireland goods entering the US could cost local businesses a "direct and narrow" impact of at least £100m in lost sales. He said second and third round effects, such as an overall reduction in global trade, could push the overall negative impact up to between £200m and £300m.He added that even a drop of £100m could still have a significant impact on overall economic performance."It is only about 0.2% of Northern Ireland's overall GDP, which is about £50bn," he said."However, if Northern Ireland's growth in GDP this year is well under 1% - and this is quite likely - that would be equivalent to a quarter of economic growth."Speaking ahead of the announcement, Stuart Anderson, from the NI Chamber of Commerce, said the US was a really important market and called on the UK government to "respond really, really clearly" after Wednesday's announcement.He added that could get "challenging" if the EU and UK respond differently.Jim Nash, joint owner of the Wild Atlantic Distillery, near Castlederg, County Tyrone, added that tariffs could be "catastrophic" for small producers like them.Analysis: The tariffs tit-for-tat and Northern Irelandby John Campbell, BBC News NI economics editorWe shouldn't expect that exports to the US from Northern Ireland will collapse, because very often when you're a manufacturer competing on a global stage, you're not doing that solely on price.It's not like there's a load of American companies who can immediately substitute what you're doing at a cheaper rate.What you're probably likely to see is the volume of goods that might be sold into the US will decline just because they get more expensive.There is also a Windsor Framework element to this – not on the export side because Northern Ireland goods going into the US are just UK goods.But goods coming into Northern Ireland have to meet EU rules, so you could have a situation where the UK doesn't retaliate, doesn't impose any tariffs on US goods, but the EU would retaliate.In that circumstance, US goods entering Northern Ireland would have to pay the EU tariffs but US goods entering the rest of the UK would not have to pay the tariffs.There is the possibility that Northern Ireland importers could get a rebate of the tariff if they can show that the goods are staying within Northern Ireland.How is the Republic of Ireland reacting to Trump's tariffs?In the Dáil (Irish parliament) earlier on Wednesday, Martin signalled that the country was readying itself for the impact of Trump's tariff announcement later on Wednesday evening. Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin's leader of the opposition, said that planned counter tariffs from the EU were "reckless" in response to Trump.The taoiseach said that it was regrettable that Europe was now in a period of "increased protectionism" and urged the EU to be "strategic"' in regards to any counter measures.US tariffs could have a more profound effect on the Republic of Ireland's economy, which is heavily reliant on the US as an export market.Trump has previously indicated his discontent with the scale of manufacturing by US pharmaceutical firms in Ireland.Trump tariff will 'drastically' affect pharmaceutical supply, says CEOSpeaking ahead of the announcement, Gareth Sheridan, chief executive of pharmaceutical firm Nutriband, said the global supply chain would be drastically affected if the tariffs go ahead.Mr Sheridan said a quarter of Americans had "foregone treatment" because of the cost and that could rise by 25%, becoming "an extreme burden on the patient".
