🚨 The Federal Reserve may have just entered a completely new era, and Wall Street might not be ready for what comes next. At Jackson Hole, new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a major warning on inflation, interest rates, and the future of Fed policy. With inflation still running hot, rate-cut expectations collapsing, and the probability of a rate hike suddenly jumping, investors need to understand what just changed.
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🔥 In this video, I break down the four numbers from Warsh's Jackson Hole speech that could make a near-term Fed rate cut extremely difficult. PCE inflation is running at 3.7% over the last 12 months, but the six-month number is even hotter at 4.1%. Even more importantly, more than half of the Fed's inflation basket is now rising faster than 3%.
But inflation was only the beginning.
Warsh also challenged the idea that monetary policy is currently restrictive, pointing to strong business investment, surging AI spending, rising corporate profits, easy credit conditions, and a Fed funds rate sitting roughly in line with inflation. If he's right, the "higher for longer" interest-rate environment Wall Street hoped was ending could have much further to go. 📊
Then came what may have been the biggest signal of the entire speech. Warsh openly criticized the Federal Reserve's handling of the last 65 months of inflation and signaled a major shift away from the Fed's traditional forward guidance. In other words, Wall Street may no longer get the same roadmap it has relied on for years.
🏦 I also break down the unusual reaction inside the Treasury market, why the 2-year yield jumped while the 30-year yield moved lower, and what that could be telling us about the bond market's confidence in the new Fed chairman.
Most importantly, we look ahead to the September Fed meeting and what investors should be watching for next. If you've been positioning your portfolio around falling interest rates, cheaper mortgages, stronger bond prices, or another Fed-fueled stock market rally, this is one video you don't want to miss. ⚠️
⏱️ TIMESTAMPS
00:00 The Fed Just Changed the Game
01:29 Inflation Is Reaccelerating
02:06 The Number Wall Street Can't Ignore
02:51 Why Fed Policy May NOT Be Restrictive
03:11 AI Spending, Profits & Easy Money
04:01 Trade LIVE With Me for $5
04:52 Warsh Blames the Federal Reserve
06:07 The Fed's Forward Guidance Era Is Ending
06:38 The "Hall of Mirrors" Problem
07:40 Wall Street's Fed Cheat Sheet Is Disappearing
08:03 The Bond Market Sends a Strange Signal
08:49 The Next BIG Fed Decision
09:20 What Higher Rates Could Mean for Your Portfolio
09:35 Why Investors Shouldn't Count on Rate Cuts
10:04 The Fed Rescue Window Could Be Closing
10:15 Final Thoughts & What Comes Next
🚨 The Fed playbook investors have relied on for years may be changing. If you want to stay ahead of the biggest moves in the stock market, interest rates, inflation, AI stocks, and the economy, SUBSCRIBE and turn on notifications 🔔. I'll continue breaking down the market signals that matter and what they could mean for investors before the next major move happens.
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⚠️ DISCLAIMER: Ross Givens does not offer financial advice. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Ross Givens is not responsible for any financial losses or consequences resulting from the use of the information provided. Trading carries inherent risks and may not be suitable for all individuals. You are advised to conduct your own research and seek personalized advice before making any investment decisions, recognizing the potential risks and rewards involved.
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