When could Clacton by-election be, what was 2024 result, and what chance does Nigel Farage have of winning?

Reform leader Nigel Farage will resign as an MP for Clacton-on-Sea and will stand in a by-election for constituents to decide his future Reform UK leader Nigel Farage arrives to cast his vote in the local elections in Walton-on-the-Naze, Essex. Picture date: Thursday May 7, 2026. Picture: Alamy Nigel Farage has quit as Clacton-on-Sea MP and pledged to stand again for his Essex seat, after a row over the Reform leader's finances. A by-election will be held with voters in the constituency given the chance to elect Mr Farage or another candidate, with all major parties expecting to stand. Mr Farage said on Tuesday that he will contest the vote and took a swipe at the media coverage of how he received a £5m donation from convicted criminal and crypto-gambler George Cottrell.He was found to have failed to properly declare the donations, and Liberal Democrat MP Josh Babarinde wrote to the parliamentary standards committee on Sunday to complain. Mr Farage said: “Why should they be the people who decide my fate? When, as I repeat, I have done nothing wrong.“I thought about it hard and I have decided today I will resign as a Member of Parliament for Clacton-on-Sea, thereby forcing a by-election, which should happen, I hope, in short order.“Now I’ve decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions. This will be a people versus the establishment by-election. It’s a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire establishment to frankly tell them where to go, and that is why I will be putting my name forward to stand in this by-election.“I will fight to win. I will fight to continue the political revolution that Reform has started, and I would say this to you, the voters of Clacton, if I win, you win, because if I lose, they win, and we will never with the two old parties get the type of fundamental change that we need to fix broken Britain.” Here is what we know about an upcoming by-election in Clacton-on-Sea.Read also: 'If you’re unsure, declare it': Lucy Powell hits out at Farage over claims he accepted 'eye-watering' donations from convicted criminal Farage campaigns for votes in Essex. Picture: Alamy Clacton-on-Sea votes for 2024 General ElectionReform UK, Nigel Farage - 21,225Conservative, Giles Watling - 12,820Labour, Jovan Owusu-Nepaul - 7,448Liberal Democrats, Matthew Bensilum 2,016,Green, Natasha Osbenm - 1,935,Independent, Tony Mack - 317,UKIP, Andrew Pemberton - 116,Climate, Craig Jamieson - 48,Heritage Party, Tasos Papanastasiou - 33 When will the Clacton by-election be? There is not, as yet, a date for a Clacton-on-Sea by-election, and at present the only candidate to have declared is Reform's Nigel Farage. The vote is likely to be later in 2026, and other parties are expected to announce candidates soon. Man sleeping on a sea wall Clacton on Sea Essex sunbathing shorts. Picture: Alamy Where is Clacton-on-Sea?Clacton-on-Sea is a coastal town in Essex and has historically been one of the largest seaside resorts in the East of England.Located between the smaller Jaywick and Holland-on-Sea, Clacton, as it is usually known, declined as a tourist destination in the 20th century, and jobs were lost with the closure of Butlins camp in 1983. Clacton-on-Sea station has regular links to London and it takes around an hour and a half to get to London."It is an older demographic in Clacton and perhaps there's some idealism," a resident told the BBC of the politics.Another added: "The biggest challenge for hospitality and the seaside as a whole - and Clacton Pier - has been how the Eastern European labour decided to move home."We've never really recovered from that. The British don't see hospitality as a long-term career path." Reform UK leader Nigel Farage makes his statement . Picture: Alamy Who could win a Clacton by-election?According to Vote Climate, Reform is ahead in the constituency, and an Ipos Mori national poll shows that Reform is on 27%, ahead of Labour on 20%. As well as winning the 2024 General Election seat, Reform also won all of the 2026 Tendring Council local election seats for Clacton - by some big margins.Reform also won the area's seats in the most recent Essex County Council elections. What might count against Mr Farage and Reform, however, is both the scandal around finances and his performance as the local MP:What is Mr Farage's financial scandal? Under the Commons’ rules, new MPs are required to register any gifts worth more than £300 they received in the previous 12 months, except where the gift “could not reasonably be thought by others” to relate to their political activities.Mr Farage is already facing a parliamentary standards investigation over a £5m gift from Reform donor Christopher Harborne before becoming an MP.Labour and the Liberal Democrats have called for both the Electoral Commission and the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards to investigate the support from Mr Cottrell.Mr Farage said standards investigations by the parliamentary authorities are “now being used as a political tool”.His resignation will mean Parliamentary Standards Commissioner Daniel Greenberg’s investigation into the £5m donation is suspended, but it will be resumed if Mr Farage wins the by-election and comes back to Parliament.Mr Farage insisted his £5m gift from Harborne was given to him on an “unconditional basis”.Nigel Farage's record as MPIn his first year in Parliament, from 2024 to 2025, he was found to have spoken 45 times, compared to 226 for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, 97 for Liberal Democrat Ed Davey, and 152 and 86 respectively for Green Party co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay.In that same time frame, Mr Farage voted 91 times, compared to other opposition leaders Mr Davey (111), Ms Denyer (205), Mr Ramsay (178), and Ms Badenoch (92)Mr Farage was found in 2025 to have 12 other jobs in addition to his £95,000 salary as an MP. The BBC also found from a study that some residents have changed their minds, having voted for Brexit."If I had to vote again, I'd vote to stay," one said.Another added: "With the trade routes and the way prices are going up now, it's becoming impossible for people my age even to get a home, let alone anything else - I blame Brexit for that."But, while his record of turning up to the Commons is a poor comparison, it could be argued that Mr Farage has been a successful leader in presiding over Reform as their opinion polls have risen.The party also won 1,454 seats in the 2026 local elections, more than any other. Clacton-on-Sea is busy over the summer months. Picture: Alamy How has Clacton voted in the past?There are 78,245 eligible voters in Clacton, and the seat was won by a Conservative candidate in the 2010, 2017, and 2019 elections. However, the constituency has a history of leaning further right, and a 2014 by-election was won by UKIP defector Douglas Carswell, who hung onto the seat in 2015 before the Tories won it back in 2017. Mr Farage became an MP for the first time after winning the seat from Tory Giles Watling. Clacton had one of the highest shares of those voting Leave in the European Union referendum in 2016 with 70%.How much do by-elections cost to hold? By-elections, which are paid for by taxpayers, cost an average of £239,529, according to a 2014 BBC study - and adjusting for inflation, that would be around £347,975 today. Mr Farage said Reform UK was offering to cover the cost of the by-election. In a post on X, he said: “I have spoken to the CEO of Tendring District Council.“Reform has offered to cover the cost of the by-election. I will be writing to Rachel Reeves later today with the same message.“Given that we asked for this by-election in the first place, it’s only right that we pay for it.”

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