Queen’s University expert on why Northern Ireland needs to invest in preventing youth crime instead of spending more on its aftermath
Thirty-four.That was the combined age of three young people arrested for throwing petrol bombs over the weekend of 23 May 2026. It was shocking, but unfortunately, it was not isolated.Across the island, there are growing concerns about domestic violence in the home, serious youth violence in communities, far-right extremism, and the online exploitation of children and young people, all unfolding against the backdrop of an increasingly unstable and polarised world.The result is that violence casts a long shadow. Victims are traumatised. Communities are stretched. Services are overwhelmed.And yet, we continue to ask the wrong question.We tend to ask: “Why did this happen?” A better question might be: “What conditions made this possible?”I have undertaken dozens of studies with almost 3,000 people affected by violence, alongside those trying to prevent it. I have worked with youth organisations, probation services, prisons, schools, community groups and statutory agencies. One message comes through consistently: Violence rarely emerges from nowhere.In almost every case, especially those most complex cases, there is a history of adversity that stretches across generations. Intergenerational. Too often, public debate treats violence as a series of isolated incidents carried out by “bad people”. But the stories that these people tell us are much more complicated. Their lives are shaped by overlapping pressures, violence at home, exposure to harm in communities, online exploitation, poverty, addiction, untreated trauma, poor mental health, and a growing mistrust of institutions that are supposed to help.Our research shows that almost one in five adults in Northern Ireland experienced four or more significant adverse experiences during childhood. That threshold is commonly associated with significantly poorer life outcomes in adulthood, including mental ill-health, addiction, unemployment, homelessness, and involvement in violence, either as a victim or perpetrator. This one metric shows that we have a more significant problem that other countries-notably England and Wales, with effects that ripple outward, affecting families, schools, neighbourhoods and already overstretched public services.In one study involving adults on probation, nearly every participant described serious victimisation in their own lives before becoming involved in offending. Many had experienced threats, intimidation, domestic abuse, paramilitary violence or chronic neglect. Yet few had ever received a formal trauma assessment.That should concern all of us.Because while we often respond to violence as an immediate crisis and spend enormous amounts dealing with the consequences, we invest far less in preventing the conditions that allow violence to take root in the first place.Politicians regularly speak about prevention. Strategies are published. Commitments are made. But on the ground, prevention is still too often the first thing cut when budgets tighten. And this is where there is genuine reason for hope.Our work with youth services across Northern Ireland, shows that the right support, delivered at the right time and in the right places, can make a measurable difference. Young people connected to trusted adults, safe environments, and meaningful opportunities, are significantly less likely to become involved in serious violence. They are more likely to recognise exploitation, seek help early, remain engaged in education, and develop healthier coping strategies.Importantly, effective youth services are not simply about “keeping young people busy”. It creates protective relationships, strengthens identity and belonging, and helps young people navigate increasingly complex risks, online and offline.But access to these supports remains uneven.Some communities facing the highest levels of harm still have the fewest resources. Too often, services are fragmented, short-term, or concentrated only after crises emerge. We need to become much smarter about how support is distributed. New approaches are beginning to emerge that use data and research evidence to identify where risks are concentrated and where preventative services can have the greatest impact. This approach allows limited resources to be targeted more effectively while ensuring specialist interventions reach the communities that need them most.This is not about excusing violence or avoiding accountability. People must still take responsibility for their actions.Violence prevention begins much earlier- in homes, schools, youth centres and communities; in relationships built on trust; and in systems willing to invest before crisis arrives. If we fail to act upstream, we should not be surprised when the downstream consequences continue to grow.We now have considerable evidence to support this and through the establishment of a new research centre at Queen’s, we will endeavour to take this evidence to those who can use it best and develop training to enhance how services are delivered. On 1 June, delegates from across the island, alongside global experts, will come together to launch the new Centre for Evidence-Based Youth Services (CEBYS). We cannot afford the alternative. If three young people can reach the point to engage in serious community violence by a combined age of 34, we have to ask, what did they need earlier - and why didn’t they get it?
