Will Hantavirus spread? Critical dates
May 19th
Second generation symptom onset
May, 19th
Third generation symptom onset if pre-symptomatic transmission
June 5th
More likely date of third generation cases becoming symptomatic
End of June
No new cases, outbreak over
Currently, (12th May) no cases confirmed except people from MV Hondius.
88 = 61 = 149
Therefore, no evidence of viral spread beyond the confines of the ship.
BUT
Long incubation period, 1 to 6 to 8 weeks
Some passengers (29,) left ship April 24 (Saint Helena)
(They will have been in contact with hundreds of people)
Body fluids, e.g. saliva, kissing, sharing food and drink
(sexual contact, soiled bedding or clothing, shared a bed, slept in the same room, shared a bathroom, shared a toothbrush, cigarette or vape, contact with bodily fluids)
(But looks like there was proximity spread on the ship)
Therefore, Andes strain could spread through airborne transmission.
Therefore, we don’t know about third generation spread
Generation 1
Patient zero, Leo Schilperoord, 70
Generation 2
Spread within confines of the ship, 9 symptomatic so far.
(Total of 10 symptomatic cases, 1 of the 9 is wife, Miriam Schilperoord, 69)
Reproduction number = 9 (on the ship)
Average time for ship passengers to become ill, 22 days.
(Andes strain of hantavirus in Argentina, peak time for symptom onset was 22 to 28 days)
24th April + 22 days = Friday 15th May
So, second generation cases could become ill in the next few days.
(or up to next 3 or 4 weeks)
How many become ill will give information about human-to-human spread.
Generation 3
People who have not been on the ship
If pre symptomatic spread these could show up 15th to end of May.
BUT
Transmission more likely form ill patients
So, generation 2 patients become ill 15th May
Then generation 3 patients may not present until
15th May + 2 days = 5th June
Good news
KLM air hostess (thought to have contracted virus from Mrs Schilperoord) was not infected.
Due to the long incubation period, IgM antibodies should be detectable by the time of significant symptoms.
