The Irish Times view on AI in Ireland: important messages for Government
A new report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) on the impact on AI in Ireland provides estimates of what it will mean for jobs and incomes. These carry important messages for the Government, even if the predictions are , by their nature, tentative given the rapid evolution of the technology. The most striking estimate is that AI could displace some 7 per cent of jobs in the Irish workforce, mainly desk-based ones with relatively high incomes. While AI will also increase productivity – and possibly incomes – in other areas, the report warns that the overall impact on economic growth and tax revenues could be negative. There are some important policy implications. One is the vital task of properly planning and resourcing AI education and training, including for those in the middle or later stages of their careers. Third-level courses can adjust to include AI modules, the research points out, but retraining those already in work – either to allow them to shift jobs or to get the greatest benefit from AI in their current role – will be more difficult. This kind of strategic, medium-term planning is an area where Ireland often calls short. Useful work is underway in an Oireachtas committee – and presumably in Government departments – but bringing this together into a coherent plan is what must happen. READ MORE‘Out of fuel’: Co Clare garage runs short of diesel as queues form at some petrol stationsDay of pain in Lebanon: ‘They’re doing the same thing they did to Gaza’ The Pitt review: A supremely tense and addictively terse drama. It’s like ER minus George Clooney‘Maybe we are not that mad – and it is worth pursuing’: Tipperary castle wins prestigious heritage awardAI may also have a negative impact on the public finances, though the report says it is impossible to be definitive on this. Fewer jobs mean less income tax, of course, and this may not be made up for by higher productivity and taxes elsewhere. This means that the State needs to consider broadening the tax base, according to the ESRI report, with a particular emphasis on wealth and capital, two areas which are generally lightly taxed in Ireland compared to other countries. Like all major technological changes, the impact of AI will be unpredictable and there will be winners as well as losers. The key difference this time is the speed at which this new force is entering the working lives of so many and the uncertainty about its exact impact.
