‘Highly educated’ most vulnerable to AI job losses in Ireland, report warns
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution will have a severe effect on the Irish economy, with the most educated workers in top-paying jobs set to be hammered by the technology, a new report has warned. AI is set to impact up to 7 per cent of all jobs in the State in the short to medium term, according to a central scenario outlined in research from think tank ESRI and the Department of Finance. Many of those job losses will be at the top-end of the economy, it said. “AI adoption among Irish firms is likely to lead to job losses, concentrated among highly educated workers, reflecting the strong exposure of high-skilled occupations to AI technologies,” the ESRI said in a statement. The report, authored by Karina Doorley, Sorcha O’Connor, Richard O’Shea and Dora Tuda, is the clearest indication yet that AI is set change the Irish economy in profound ways. READ MOREAI is coming to take your well-paid job and Aimee Connelly’s growth plans Withings BeamO review: Next-gen thermometer packs a punch – and a price Reaching for the next rung on the career ladder in the age of AI uncertaintyVet turns to herbal medicine to tackle pet health issues“The effect of AI on the labour market and the distribution of income is still highly uncertain,” Doorley said. “Ensuring a speedy digital transition will minimise the inequality effects.” Boosting education levels and focusing on the services sector to drive employment has been a cornerstone of Government economic policy for decades. Yet those jobs are now under real threat from the rapidly improving technology. Entry-level roles in financial services and law – long the way into the workforce for thousands of college graduates – are widely seen as among the jobs most at risk from AI. A number of multinationals have already cited improved efficiency from AI when cutting staff around the world, while others, including Dublin-based management consulting giant Accenture, has warned it will “exit” staff who cannot be retrained for using AI in day-to-day business. Such changes would have a big impact on the State’s finances. The tax and welfare system “absorbs most of the income loss for lower income households”, but if there are “sizeable” job losses, then falling tax receipts and higher welfare spending would see “potentially large pressures on the public finances”.Although average wages for those who remain in work “are likely to rise” as a result of increasing productivity, that will not be enough to offset the overall jobs lost. [ Accenture links top-level promotions to use of its AI toolsOpens in new window ]“We find an average decline in household disposable income as a result of AI adoption,” the authors write. “The largest average losses are experienced by middle and higher income households.”The research makes clear that AI adoption will lead to worsening income inequality under every scenario it considers. Part of that will come from higher returns on investment, which would be largely concentrated among people who are already wealthy.The possibility of increased pressure on State coffers would strengthen the case for widening Ireland’s tax base, the report’s authors note, especially if the AI-induced changes lead to a near-permanent reduction in income tax.“Broadening the tax base and strengthening taxation of wealth and capital may become necessary to ensure the long-term stability of public services and welfare supports,” the report notes. The authors urge the Government to focus on training and upskilling to help reduce the number of potential job losses, citing the country’s strength in third-level education. That may make it easier to add AI-complimentary skills to university and post-Leaving Cert courses, they write.Despite the fears over AI, the report also points to expectations that the technology will create “new occupations and employment opportunities, providing further avenues for transition”.
