Iran struggles to assert control in Iraq amid strikes, militia attacks, tensions
AN IRANIAN ballistic missile on display in Tehran. (photo credit: REUTERS)The Kurdish leadership of the autonomous region is outraged, and Iran has appeared to walk back the attack. However, in other areas, it continues to try to assert itself.Iran is struggling to impose its will on Iraq.On Tuesday, Tehran launched missiles at the Kurdistan Region (KRG) of northern Iraq, which killed six members of the Kurdish Peshmerga, the region’s armed forces, and angered the autonomous region’s leadership.While Iran has appeared to walk back the attack, in other areas, it’s continuing to try to assert itself.For instance, in Baghdad, the government is continuing to express anger over attacks on the Popular Mobilization Forces. The PMF is a group of Iranian-backed militias that became an official Iraqi government paramilitary force in 2018.As such, it is able to operate as a kind of proxy of Iran while also being an official government force similar to the US National Guard. Over the last few weeks, since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, the PMF has carried out around 500 attacks in Iraq, mostly targeting the US and Kurds, and also European forces.Kurdistan Regional Government Peshmerga at a mountain outpost. September 19, 2019. (credit: SETH J. FRANTZMAN)Iran's influence tested in Iraq amid militia attacksIran’s goal is to use the PMF to control Iraq. The US has been carrying out retaliatory attacks on the PMF, some of them being visible, such as when it used A-10 aircraft. The PMF has blamed the US and Israel for airstrikes on their units, and dozens of PMF members have been killed and wounded over the last few weeks.While it may seem that there is a kind of tit-for-tat war going on in Iraq, the reality is that Iran continues to impose its will. The militias, for instance, targeted Iraq’s national intelligence headquarters, killing one person. They have targeted US facilities at Baghdad International Airport.Recent drone footage appears to show they targeted a US facility called Camp Victory, targeting a radar site and a helicopter. It is not clear if the US has primarily withdrawn from this facility. However, the symbolism is clear. The Iraqi militias, backed by Iran, are showcasing their power. They can do whatever they want, in their view, and they expect the government to back them in attacking the US. They are claiming they are “retaliating.”The militias are so out of control that they also attacked Syria on Monday. Meanwhile, in the Kurdistan Region, President Nechirvan Barzani said Wednesday that the Iranian missile strike that killed six Peshmerga was acknowledged by Iran to be a “mistake,” according to Rudaw. This comes a day after he condemned Iran for the attack.Barzani spoke to reporters after he attended funerals for the fallen. He said Iran was contacted by the Kurdistan Regional Government and that “they acknowledge that a mistake was made and have promised to conduct an investigation into the matter.” He claims that Iran has sent its regrets and condolences. More than 30 peshmerga remain wounded in the attack.Barzani is trying to navigate complex times. As the PMF attacks the Kurdistan Region, he knows that if the Kurds respond, Baghdad will treat it as an act of war. This is how Baghdad and Iran use the militias. They carry out attacks and then claim it is an act of war if anyone responds. This is how they have treated the US strikes on the militias.However, the US can more easily avoid direct conflict because American forces are mostly outside of Iraq. The US withdrew from most facilities in 2020 after tensions with the militias. In 2020, the US killed IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis due to attacks on the US Embassy.Now the US has some forces in the KRG and has reduced its presence in Baghdad. The militias believe the US is withdrawing its personnel to Jordan. Militias have circulated videos of this online. As such, Iran and its militias believe they are winning in Iraq. Meanwhile, US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Tommy Pigott told Rudaw that the US strongly condemns the attack on the Peshmerga.The US has provided a show of force by using aircraft over the Kurdistan Region, apparently to deter more attacks. “Erbil experienced renewed aerial threats overnight into Wednesday, as drones and missiles targeting the city were intercepted, according to security sources,” Rudaw noted. In Anbar province, an airstrike killed several members of the Iraqi security forces.
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