Blocking Andy Burnham leaves Keir Starmer isolated
The reasons for the decision were briefed out well in advance. Back in December, I was reporting on some of the excuses that were already being prepared by NEC members to block Andy Burnham, the most popular Labour politician in the country, from standing as a Labour candidate in any by-election if a vacancy arose.
In these past few days, as Gorton and Denton became vacant and Burnham announced his intention to stand with a pledge of loyalty to the Prime Minister, those excuses were widely circulated to the press through anonymous briefings. They were numerous and often contradictory. Burnham wanted to topple the government, we were told. Oh no, on the other hand, it was simply that he was of the wrong sex and the gender balance in the PLP has slipped the wrong way in recent years. Or it was a question of money, because a mayoralty by-election in Greater Manchester would be expensive and the party is broke. But then we also heard that Labour would lose any such mayoral race to Reform (which itself seemed an extraordinary admission of political defeat for the Starmer project). The official reason, put out by Labour on Sunday morning, was that a Manchester mayoral race would be too much of a drag on resources “although the party would be confident of retaining the mayoralty”.
Beneath all this fancy dress was the naked politics: if Burnham got a seat in the House of Commons he would transform from King of the North into Prince across the Water, waiting to be elevated to the top job. Starmer and his allies could not allow it.
Some thought the officers of the NEC would, faced with the stark reality of their decision and anticipating the backlash that it will cause, step back from the ledge at the final moment. They have jumped.
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After 18 months of government, 12 U-turns and counting, and the worst polling for any Labour government on record, it was a refusal to engage with a challenge to the current Labour leadership which will not go away on its own. That is Burnham’s critique of the direction of the party and the government since at least July 2024 – which is shared at least in part by large numbers of people in the Labour movement who look at the current polls with horror. If he is not the one to lead that challenge now, someone else will.
The decision will cause unrest. If another Labour candidate loses the by-election, it could be outright revolt.
And remember this. In the knifing of Burnham, no senior Labour politician got blood on their hands. Shabana Mahmood, shielded by convention, chaired the crucial NEC meeting but did not vote (on the morning media round she had praised Burnham as an “exceptional politician”). Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, unsurprisingly, cast a lonely vote for Burnham. Wes Streeting condemned the anonymous briefings against Burnham as “disgraceful” and, without endorsing Burnham’s run, said the party needed “the best possible candidate” in Gorton and Denton. Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, said Burnham should be allowed to stand. So did Sadiq Khan.
Those publicly trashing Burnham’s run were a selection of backbenchers. The figures on the NEC who voted to block Burnham are not household names. This is a decision that will be entirely put at the door of Keir Starmer.
And if this decision results in the loss a safe Labour seat, in the party’s heartland of Greater Manchester, the Prime Minister will find that it is very, very lonely at the top.
[Further reading: Andy Burnham blocked from standing in Gorton and Denton]
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