Final Oscar Nominations Predictions via Feinberg Forecast
A NOTE FROM SCOTT Set your alarms! On Thursday morning, at the ungodly hour of 5:30 a.m. PT, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will reveal its nominations for the 98th Oscars. As always, I will be at the Academy’s Beverly Hills headquarters for the announcement, excited to finally learn the answers to the questions that have been keeping me up for months, and will then hustle home to write up an analysis of what happened.
With the membership of the Academy now larger (some 11,000 members) and more spread out (25 percent outside of the U.S.) than ever, accurately projecting the noms is, I dare say, harder than ever. But below, you will find my best guesses of how things will shake out in each of the 24 categories — up one from last year, thanks to the introduction of the best casting Oscar — drawing upon screenings of all of the top contenders, conversations with a wide cross-section of voters and in-depth historical and statistical analysis.
In short, I expect the most noms to go to Sinners (15, which would break the record of 14 currently shared by 1950’s All About Eve, 1997’s Titanic and 2016’s La La Land), followed by One Battle After Another (12, including a record-tying five acting noms) and, in a tie for third, Frankenstein and Hamnet (11 each). Only once before have four films broken into double digits, six years ago.
In terms of companies, Warner Bros. — currently in a tug-of-war between Netflix and Paramount — will easily lead the field. Between Sinners, One Battle, F1, Weapons and Superman, I anticipate 32 noms, which would be the most for a single company since Netflix landed 35 five years ago. Trailing behind will be Netflix (19 between Frankenstein, Train Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, The Perfect Neighbor and a couple of shorts), Neon (17 between Sentimental Value, Sirat, The Secret Agent and It Was Just an Accident) and Focus (15 between Hamnet and Bugonia).
Across all categories, I expect a strong — and possibly unprecedented — showing for non-English-language films (those international voters are not deterred by subtitles, and far fewer English-speakers are than used to be), and a bruising day for people not associated with best picture nominees (there has been an influx of younger voters, many of whom are too busy to see a large number of films, resulting in heavy coattails for the films that they do see and like).
Of course, there also will be, as always, surprise inclusions and omissions, which make the whole thing all the more fun and heartbreaking. We’ll be covering every aspect of the day and the season at THR.com, so be sure to bookmark that URL, as well as this one to specifically access my latest coverage, and this one to catch my Awards Chatter podcast, which features career-encompassing interviews with many of the top contenders.
Good luck and godspeed to us all!
Best Picture
Image Credit: Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)3. Hamnet (Focus)4. Marty Supreme (A24)5. Frankenstein (Netflix)6. Sentimental Value (Neon)7. Train Dreams (Netflix)8. Bugonia (Focus)9. The Secret Agent (Neon)10. Sirat (Neon)
AlternateF1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Potential SurpriseNuremberg (Sony Classics)
Shoulda Been a ContendaNouvelle Vague (Netflix)
Best Director
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
Projected Nominees1. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)2. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)3. Chloé Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)4. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)5. Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2
AlternateJoachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
Potential SurpriseOliver Laxe for Sirat (Neon)
Shoulda Been a ContendaKleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent (Neon)
Best Actor
Image Credit: © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees1. Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast2. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)3. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast4. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon) — podcast5. Jesse Plemons for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast
AlternateEthan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — podcast
Potential SurpriseJoel Edgerton for Train Dreams (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2
Shoulda Been a ContendaBill Skarsgard for Dead Man’s Wire (Row K)
Best Actress
Image Credit: Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees1. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet (Focus)2. Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)3. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value (Neon)4. Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast5. Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) — podcast
AlternateKate Hudson for Song Sung Blue (Focus) — podcast
Potential SurpriseAmanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — podcast 1 and 2
Shoulda Been a ContendaTessa Thompson for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees1. Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast2. Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast3. Paul Mescal for Hamnet (Focus)4. Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast5. Sean Penn for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
AlternateMiles Caton for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Potential SurpriseJacobi Jupe for Hamnet (Focus)
Shoulda Been a ContendaKevin O’Leary for Marty Supreme (A24)
Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Quantrell Colbert/Warner Bros.
Projected Nominees1. Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)2. Amy Madigan for Weapons (Warner Bros.) — podcast3. Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (Warner Bros.)4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value (Neon)5. Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good (Universal) — podcast 1 and 2
AlternateGwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast
Potential SurpriseRegina Hall for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Shoulda Been a ContendaTânia Maria for The Secret Agent (Neon)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Netflix
Projected Nominees1. Hamnet (Focus) — Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson3. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar4. Bugonia (Focus) — Will Tracy5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro — podcast 1 and 2
AlternateNuremberg — James Vanderbilt
Potential SurpriseWake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Rian Johnson — podcast
Shoulda Been a ContendaSpringsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century) — Scott Cooper
Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler2. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie3. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt4. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho5. It Was Just an Accident (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
AlternateBlue Moon (Sony Classics) — Robert Kaplow
Potential SurpriseJay Kelly (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer
Shoulda Been a ContendaLeft-Handed Girl (Netflix) — Sean Baker & Shih-Ching Tsou — podcast (Baker)
Best International Feature
Image Credit: Neon
Projected Nominees1. Norway — Sentimental Value (Neon)2. Spain — Sirat (Neon)3. Brazil — The Secret Agent (Neon)4. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)5. France — It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
AlternateJapan — Kokuho (GKIDS)
Potential SurpriseIraq — The President’s Cake (Sony Classics)
Shoulda Been a ContendaItaly — La Grazia (Mubi)
Best Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Netflix
Projected Nominees1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)2. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (still seeking U.S. distribution)3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)4. The Alabama Solution (HBO)5. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple)
AlternateApocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)
Potential SurpriseCutting Through Rocks (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Shoulda Been a ContendaMy Mom Jayne (HBO)
Best Animated Feature
Image Credit: Disney
Projected Nominees1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)2. Zootopia 2 (Disney)3. Arco (Neon)4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle (Sony/Crunchyroll)
AlternateElio (Disney/Pixar)
Potential SurpriseThe Bad Guys 2 (Universal)
Shoulda Been a ContendaIn Your Dreams (Netflix)
Best Casting
Image Credit: Neon
Projected Nominees1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jennifer Venditti4. Hamnet (Focus) — Nina Gold5. Sirat (Neon) — Nadia Acimi & Luís Bértolo
AlternateThe Secret Agent (Neon) — Gabriel Domingues
Potential SurpriseSentimental Value (Neon) — Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman
Shoulda Been a ContendaNouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Stéphane Batut
Best Cinematography
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures / Apple Original Films
Projected Nominees1. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw3. Hamnet (Focus) — Lukasz Zal4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Dan Laustsen
AlternateMarty Supreme (A24) — Darius Khondji
Potential SurpriseF1 (Apple) — Claudio Miranda
Shoulda Been a ContendaJay Kelly (Netflix) — Linus Sandgren
Best Costume Design
Image Credit: Parisa Taghizadeh/Amazon
Projected Nominees1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Kate Hawley2. Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Paul Tazewell3. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter (podcast)4. Hamnet (Focus) — Malgosia Turzanska5. Marty Supreme (A24) — Miyako Bellizzi
AlternateHedda (Amazon/MGM) — Lindsay Pugh
Potential SurpriseKiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — Colleen Atwood & Christine Cantella
Shoulda Been a ContendaSong Sung Blue (Focus) — Ernesto Martinez
Best Film Editing
Image Credit: Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Michael Shawver3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie4. Hamnet (Focus) — Affonso Gonçalves & Chloé Zhao5. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
AlternateSentimental Value (Neon) — Olivier Bugge Coutté
Potential SurpriseFrankenstein (Netflix) — Evan Schiff
Shoulda Been a ContendaThe Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) — Viridiana Lieberman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: A24
Projected Nominees1. Frankenstein (Netflix)2. The Smashing Machine (A24)3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)4. Wicked: For Good (Universal) 5. Marty Supreme (A24)
AlternateNuremberg (Sony Classics)
Potential SurpriseThe Ugly Stepsister (IFC)
Shoulda Been a Contenda28 Years Later (Sony)
Best Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
Projected Nominees1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Johnny Greenwood3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat4. Hamnet (Focus) — Max Richter5. Sirat (Neon) — Kangding Ray
AlternateJay Kelly (Netflix) — Nicholas Britell (podcast)
Potential SurpriseTron: Ares (Disney) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Shoulda Been a ContendaThe Long Walk (Lionsgate) — Jeremiah Fraites
Best Original Song
Image Credit: Jenna Rosher
Projected Nominees1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick — listen2. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson & Alice Smith — listen3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Göransson — listen4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) — Diane Warren (podcast) — listen5. “Dream as One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Miley Cyrus (podcast), Simon Franglen, Mark Ronson (podcast) & Andrew Wyatt — listen
Alternate“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix) — Nick Cave & Bryce Dessner — listen
Potential Surprise“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple) — Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile & Andrea Gibson — listen
Shoulda Been a Contenda“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) — Daniel Blumberg
Best Production Design
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios
Projected Nominees1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Beachler3. Hamnet (Focus) — Fiona Crombie4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jack Fisk5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Dylan Cole & Ben Procter
AlternateBugonia (Focus) — James Price
Potential SurpriseWicked: For Good (Universal) — Nathan Crowley
Shoulda Been a ContendaRoofman (Paramount) — Inbal Weinberg
Best Sound
Image Credit: Universal Studios
Projected Nominees1. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)3. Frankenstein (Netflix)4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)5. Sirat (Neon)
AlternateWicked: For Good (Universal)
Potential SurpriseOne Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Shoulda Been a ContendaMarty Supreme (A24)
Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros.
Projected Nominees1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)2. Frankenstein (Netflix)3. Wicked: For Good (Universal)4. Superman (Warner Bros.)5. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
AlternateSinners (Warner Bros.)
Potential SurpriseThe Lost Bus (Apple)
Shoulda Been a ContendaMickey 17 (Warner Bros.)
Best Animated Short
Image Credit: Locksmith Animation/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees1. Retirement Plan2. Cardboard3. I Died in Irpin4. Playing God5. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
AlternateButterfly
Potential SurpriseThe Shyness of Trees
Best Documentary Short
Image Credit: Courtesy of Filmmakers
Projected Nominees1. We Were the Scenery2. All the Empty Rooms3. Last Days on Lake Trinity4. Classroom 45. Cashing Out
AlternateAll the Walls Came Down
Potential SurpriseHeartbeat
Best Live-Action Short
Image Credit: The New Yorker/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projected Nominees1. Extremist2. Rock, Paper, Scissors3. Two People Exchanging Saliva4. A Friend of Dorothy5. The Singers
AlternateThe Boy With White Skin
Potential SurpriseJane Austen’s Period Drama
