Vicious cycle of alarmism could lead Israel into unwanted war with Iran
While neither side wants war, both Jerusalem and Tehran suspect each other of being ready to suddenly launch a surprise attack.Neither Israel nor Iran wants war at the moment, nor do either of them want war for the foreseeable future.Based on that common interest, one might think war between the sides is unlikely. That assumption would be false.While neither side wants war, both suspect the other of being ready to launch a surprise attack.Furthermore, both sides are unwilling to compromise on each other’s demands, which would greatly reduce the possibility of war.The situation has deteriorated to the extent that, if one side thinks it is being fooled by the other, it may preemptively strike to avoid a war that, quite simply, isn’t going to happen. In essence, they are striking at a phantom - a possibility that never existed in the first place.Iranian missiles are displayed at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) Aerospace Force Museum in Tehran, Iran, November 12, 2025 (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)How did the situation get so unstable?Iran and Israel were in a decades-long shadow war until April 2024.In April 2024, Iran launched 110 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and over 30 cruise missiles at Israel, all in one night.That permanently changed the relationship between the two sides.The Islamic Republic attacked again on October 2024 with over 180 ballistic missiles.For its part, Israel counterattacked them both times.And then, at a moment of vital negotiations between the US and Iran, the IDF launched its surprise attack on Iran.'Vicious cycle of alarmism'From that point onwards, the Islamic Republic has become paranoid of another surprise attack. And understandably so, given how deadly the Israeli attack was for its national power and top commanders.In response, Iran launched over 550 missiles and over 1,000 drones at Israel. But it won’t stop there. Iran aims to build enough ballistic missiles so that it will regain the 50% it lost six months ago. Then, from there, it seeks to surpass its pre-war 2,500 missile total, such that it can overwhelm Israel’s missile shield.No one really expects Iran to attack now, when it lacks sufficient missiles.But might that make it more desirable for Israel to attack sooner?And if Israel might attack sooner, then should Tehran attack sooner, even if it is not ready?This returns both sides to the vicious circle of alarmism, which could lead to an unwanted war.This exact strand of paranoia almost led the world to a nuclear holocaust during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. And, in 2014, it led to a 50-day war between Hamas and the IDF that neither side wanted nor was ready for.Of course, Hamas did want, and Iran does want, to eventually destroy Israel.But that does not mean that it is smart to get into a war when Israel is neither ready nor recovered. We as a people are not mentally prepared for another war, nor do we wish to watch scores of missiles yet again shatter into our Arrow interceptors.Israeli officials have been stating their readiness to strike Iran to try to deter it from rebuilding its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.And if Iran keeps building up its ballistic missile volume, Israel may again need to attack, whether that’s in three months, six months, or a few years.In the meantime, however, Israeli officials are now concerned that they may have intimidated Iran too aggressively, and are hoping that a recalibration can avoid an early war.
