Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk Meduza’s military analysts on the threat of encirclement and Ukraine’s chances of defense
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.Key updates as of November 6, 2025The battle for Pokrovsk, ongoing since 2024, appears to be nearing its end. Russian assault units first entered the city back in the summer, but now larger forces have advanced from several directions. Open-source videos show Russian troops taking positions across Pokrovsk. In the north, they have reached a district of high-rise buildings overlooking the only road linking the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison in nearby Myrnohrad with the rest of Ukrainian-held territory. Another Russian group is pushing toward the same road (Myrnohrad–Hryshyne) from the north. A corridor roughly five kilometers (three miles) wide still separates it from the Russian forward units already inside Pokrovsk.Despite the threat of encirclement and growing difficulties in resupplying the Myrnohrad garrison, the Ukrainian command has so far (at least officially) made no plans to withdraw its forces, vowing instead to stabilize the situation with counterattacks — or even to “clear” Pokrovsk of the Russian assault troops who have broken through.An equally critical situation is unfolding for Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk, in the northeast of the Kharkiv region. Russian troops have captured most of the city’s western half, advancing toward the crossings over the Oskil River that Ukraine had used to supply its bridgehead on the eastern bank. Still, there is no encirclement — despite Russian Army General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov’s premature claim of one. Ukrainian troops continue to hold the crossings over the Oskil in the neighboring town of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. Russian forces are now trying to reach the town from the east, with about five kilometers (three miles) remaining between them and the river crossings.Our only hope is you. Support Meduza before it’s too late.Pokrovsk and MyrnohradThe Russian army has deployed large forces into Pokrovsk — until now, only small assault groups had been operating in the city, mostly in its southern part, for several months. Ukrainian sources say the main attack came along the railway line from Kotlyne, where Ukraine’s 32nd Mechanized Brigade had been defending. It was likely this brigade’s command that President Volodymyr Zelensky had in mind when he said commanders should not be afraid to report enemy breakthroughs. In any case, judging by open-source videos, units of the Russian Armed Forces’ 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army have taken control of the central railway station, the northern outskirts (including the exits toward Dnipro and Rodynske), and districts of high-rise buildings in the eastern and northern parts of Pokrovsk.It’s unclear whether significant Ukrainian forces are still in the city. Open-source footage shows only small groups of Ukrainian infantrymen engaging Russian assault troops — or surrendering. Meanwhile, large Russian forces (brigades of the 51st Army) have launched attacks on Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk’s satellite city, from the east and southeast. Another grouping from the same army has taken part of Rodynske and the nearby village of Chervonyi Lyman, advancing toward Pokrovsk’s northern outskirts to link up with the 2nd Army. If they’re successful, Ukrainian units (from the 25th Airborne Brigade and the 38th Marine Brigade) will be cut off from the country’s main forces.Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate carried out a helicopter landing of a small special forces team on Pokrovsk’s northwestern outskirts, in an industrial zone near the road to Dnipro. The objectives of this operation — and whether they were achieved — remain unknown. Another video shows a small group of Ukrainian soldiers from the 425th Assault Regiment conducting a raid into central Pokrovsk, where they raised a flag over the city administration building. There are no reports of larger Ukrainian attacks aimed at breaking through to units still inside Pokrovsk or at at reversing the situation around Myrnohrad.Zelensky has said that between 260 and 300 Russian assault troops remain in Pokrovsk and that the city will soon be cleared of them. However, this figure appears to significantly understate the scale of Russia’s presence.Ukraine’s last chance to prolong its defense of the Pokrovsk area may be a large counterattack against Russia’s 51st Army near Rodynske. Ukraine has forces capable of such an operation — they’ve been engaged in eliminating the so-called “Dobropillia breakthrough” north of Rodynske. Units of the 51st Army have recently withdrawn from that sector to the Nove Shakhove–Shakhove line, abandoning the villages of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Kucheriv Yar.The Ukrainian command now faces a choice over how to use its forces around Dobropillia: whether to attempt a counterattack — without any guarantee of success — to hold positions near Pokrovsk, or to establish a new, more stable defensive line north and west of the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad area. In the latter case, Ukrainian troops will need to begin withdrawing from Myrnohrad as soon as possible.KupyanskRussian forces continue to build up their presence in central Kupyansk. Open-source videos show Russian assault troops operating even on the southern outskirts of the city’s western half, near the crossings over the Oskil River that once served as a key supply route for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, sustaining their bridgehead on the eastern bank.Unlike in Pokrovsk, however, Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk still have room for active operations. The entire Russian grouping in the city depends on supply routes running from the crossings north of Kupyansk, as well as through an underground gas pipeline linking the eastern bank of the Oskil to the village of Radkivka on the western bank. The Russian bridgehead on the western side of the river remains relatively narrow, meaning Ukrainian forces could try, if not to cut it off entirely, then at least to slow the Russian advance into the city by striking around Radkivka and Kindrashivka. Such attacks have, in fact, been underway for several weeks, though their success can’t yet be assessed based on the available footage.The Russian command is trying to resolve the bridgehead’s supply problems by linking it directly to Russian territory. To that end, Russian troops are advancing across the border between the Belgorod and Kharkiv regions, in the area between Milove and Bolohivka. They’ll likely attempt to seize Dvorichanske and Kolodyazne in the near future, which would give them access to the road leading to the Kupyansk bridgehead.Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces on the eastern bank of the Oskil are clearly facing supply shortages, and their defenses appear to be weakening. Russian assault troops have been sighted in the central part of Kupyansk’s eastern half and in the village of Kurylivka, about five kilometers (three miles) from Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, where the last Ukrainian-controlled crossings over the Oskil in the area are located.VovchanskIn the fall, after several months of positional fighting, Russian forces renewed their offensive in the city of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. They crossed the Vovcha River, which divides the city into northern and southern halves — both within Vovchansk itself and through the forest to the west.For several weeks, intense battles took place around the industrial zone of the oil extraction plant on the river’s southern bank. After Russian troops captured the plant and the railway station, Ukrainian forces were forced to retreat to the district of high-rise buildings in the city’s south. Russian troops are now assaulting this final Ukrainian defensive position in Vovchansk.Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to [email protected]. Thank you!The battle for Pokrovsk Russia is closing in on a key city in the Donetsk region. Can Ukraine hold the line?The battle for Pokrovsk Russia is closing in on a key city in the Donetsk region. Can Ukraine hold the line?Meduza’s Razbor (“Explainers”) team
