PL Predictions: Back Sunderland to snap Arsenal's winning streak

Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and explains why Arsenal's winning streak will be under threat at Sunderland. Tottenham vs Manchester United, Saturday 12.30pmThe Tottenham Hotspur Stadium should be a fortress - a new-build modern footballing arena full of intimidation. But right now it feels more like a luxury spa for visiting teams. Opponents don't turn up dreading it. They turn up enjoying it. It's football's version of checking into a five-star hotel. You get pampered, you play your game and more often than not, you leave with something to show for it.That's seen in Spurs' home record of late. In the last year, Spurs have the fewest points (13), fewest wins (3) and most defeats (12) at home than any other ever-present side and have kept just three clean sheets in the last 39 Premier League games at home.Meanwhile, Manchester United are box office again. Not in the relentless, ruthless, title-challenging way of Sir Alex Ferguson's juggernaut but in the sense that you simply can't take your eyes off them. United aren't ready to challenge for honours yet. They are a team built for moments - not for consistency, meaning they can't be trusted still as a betting proposition in the win market where they are favourites here at 29/20 with Sky Bet. The greater value is found in their total goals line where the 10/11 for them to score over 1.5 goals rates as nice wager - something which has landed in seven of their last nine games. SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 Jack Grealish and card-based plays are very much a profitable theme of this season. Grealish remains the most fouled player in the Premier League having been fouled 29 times. He's drawing cards from these fouls too with Trai Hume, Daniel Munoz, Matty Cash and Mads Wieffer all being booked for challenges on Grealish. Opponents are doubling up and generally spending 90 minutes trying to test his patience as much as his skill. When he doesn't get the decisions, the petulance tends to bubble up, which also makes Grealish a underrated player in the to be carded market himself.Grealish doesn't lose his head often, but when he does, it's usually in games exactly like this against a physical side who are happy to foul, frustrate and use game management techniques. It's 12/1 with Sky Bet for both Grealish's direct opponent Kenny Tete and Grealish to be carded.SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1Keep an eye on Crysencio Summerville if you're looking to grab some value in the coming weeks.Because under Nuno Espirito Santo's new counter-attacking West Ham, the Dutchman looks built to be the headline act in the attacking prop markets. Nuno's blueprint took shape in their win over Newcastle: sit deep, soak up and strike. It's the same model that brought him success at Wolves and Nottingham Forest where defensive structure, lightning transitions and wide players given license to explode into space are to the fore. And that's where Summerville fits perfectly. He's been bubbling nicely under the radar with his performances for West Ham but could be about to take centre stage in this system based on his showing against Newcastle. He had three shots, one on target and a first goal of the season isn't far away. It may come here with 3/1 with Sky Bet standing out.SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1Sunderland vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE! Remember, football is defined by fine margins and is a very low-scoring sport.No matter how good of a team you are, a bit of variance and misfortune is going to hit you at some point. Arsenal are a fantastic team, keeping eight clean sheets in a row and winning the last 10 - it's incredible stuff but this isn't an unbeatable outfit. They have flaws. The outcomes in football are too volatile to allow perfection to persist.And when it comes to betting on football, the shrewdest of gamblers out there understand this and instead of chasing the streak, they are looking for opportunities for when it snaps.And at the prices here I want to be with Sunderland to end the Arsenal streak at the prices on offer.Sunderland are a fiercely organised side who are defensively secure. Robin Roefs has commanded his box very efficiently in goal to the extent that Sunderland have the second-best record in the Premier League when it comes to goals conceded from set-pieces. Arsenal can be very difficult to stop from such scenarios but Sunderland look well placed to deal with the set-piece machine.This is the time to be brave, sail against the market and get ahead of the 'bad day at the office for Arsenal' curve where all their streaks end.My main play is to back both teams to score at 6/5 with Sky Bet with eyes also on Sunderland to win at 7/1 and Sunderland to win to nil at 12/1.SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Both teams to score (6/5 with Sky Bet)Chelsea vs Wolves, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports A nervous referee is a card-happy referee. We have an inexperienced one in charge here with Andrew Kitchen overseeing just his fourth Premier League game. This is the biggest and highest profile one he's been assigned to.With these inexperienced referees the pressure of refereeing by the law, not the spirit of the game, often takes over when the Premier League microscope zooms in. A tactical foul that in the Championship might have been managed with a word suddenly becomes a nailed-on booking in the Premier League.And Chelsea are just crazy for cards since the start of last season. Their games are averaging 4.9 yellows per game in that period - that's the highest of any team. Furthermore, this fixture does have lots of spice attached to it with the last six averaging 6.9 total cards per game, including the most recent Carabao Cup tie which saw nine yellows and a red shown.I'm very keen on backing the cards line with 11/10 with Sky Bet on offer for over 4.5 cards shown.SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 4.5 cards (11/10 with Sky Bet) Aston Villa vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE! Bournemouth will be rested, organised and fully revved under Andoni Iraola - and will surely fancy their chances of turning over an Aston Villa side running on European fumes. The Premier League calendar hasn't been kind to Aston Villa - facing Iraola's team after a midweek game is a brutal examination.Thursday nights in Europe are still glamorous but they take a toll. For all of Unai Emery's tactical acumen, his squad isn't yet deep enough to juggle the workload without something giving.Bournemouth have had a full week to prepare, to rest legs and to fine tune a high-tempo, front-foot plan under Iraola. They're one of the league's fittest sides, pressing with purpose and breaking with pace. All this hasn't been factored into the match prices enough so the Cherries look a nice price on the draw no bet at 11/8 with Sky Bet.SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2Brentford vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE! Newcastle were "unrecognisable" according to their boss Eddie Howe in their 3-1 defeat to West Ham. The lack of intensity and attacking threat felt very un-Newcastle-like.Just a one-off then? No, it's not.Having looked a little deeper, these underwhelming displays and results away from St James' Park are an issue under Howe.At home Newcastle feel empowered - they press, they go at you and they look expansive and confident. On the road it's different. They're more cautious and Howe has struggled to find a formula that allows them to flourish away from the magic of St James' Park.The defeat at the London Stadium means Newcastle are now eight league games without a win on the road stretching across the summer. Jacob Murphy's strike on Sunday was also just their fourth goal scored across those eight matches and their expected goals data across that winless run is trending at a paltry 1.2 per 90. Horrendous numbers.Therefore, it's very surprising to see them chalked up as favourites to win at Brentford with the home side available at Evens on the draw no bet.SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1Crystal Palace vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports Writing about Danny Welbeck being in the form of his life in 2025 was not on my radar - but here we are.The Brighton front man is purring with confidence, looking sharper, hungrier and crucially for punters, more productive than ever. He's clocked up six goal involvements in his last six appearances, and if you zoom in on his recent minutes against Palace, it's even more impressive: three goal involvements in his last 150 minutes.These aren't streaky stats, they're signs of a player who's thriving in Fabian Hurzeler's fluid attacking structure. So, at 7/4 with Sky Bet for a goal or an assist? That's value.SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2Nottingham Forest vs Leeds, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports Sean Dyche is certainly getting to work. His fingerprints are already all over Forest's recent performances. There's been a higher ratio of long passes, more pressures in the final third and already the quality of chances Forest are facing is much lower than when under the gaze of Ange Postecoglou.Dyche is doing the sensible thing and making Forest much harder to score against.It's that defensive improvement shown under Dyche and Leeds' flakiness in attack that makes a Forest clean sheet easy to fancy here. They are actually 18 Premier League games without one - the club's worst run since 1960. And Dyche will be losing sleep over something like that.If you look back at Dyche's last 18 games as a manager, 15 of those landed for punters backing 'no' in the both teams to score market.It's 10/11 with Sky Bet to go in again.SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Both teams to score 'no' (10/11 with Sky Bet)Manchester City vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE! For punters eyeing up the first goalscorer market this weekend with Erling Haaland in their sights, it's worth asking whether the Norwegian's price truly stacks up at 3/1 with Sky Bet. Spoiler alert: it doesn't.The bookies dangle Haaland up at skinny odds and the rest of City's attacking talent gets priced as if they're supporting actors. That might make sense when City are bullying lesser sides but Liverpool are not that. And against Virgil van Dijk, Haaland's aura tends to dim.The goalscoring machine has malfunctioned when faced with Van Dijk, scoring just two goals in seven appearances for club and country. Image: Phil Foden is 7/1 with Sky Bet to score first When Haaland can't dominate physically, City often find joy elsewhere and that's where the value creeps in.Step forward Phil Foden, who is back to his best and brimming with confidence.From October onwards in the 23/24 season, Foden was one of the hottest players on the planet, scoring 25 goals in all competitions during that period - a ratio of 0.7 goals per 90. His two goals in midweek pointed towards a return of those numbers which makes his 7/1 with Sky Bet quotes for the first goal look rather generous in a game that looks so difficult to call from an outright perspective.SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1Jones Knows' best bet:1pt treble on both teams to score in Sunderland vs Arsenal, over 4.5 cards in Chelsea vs Wolves & both teams to score 'no' in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds (8/1 with Sky Bet) Jones Knows' Profit & Loss record 25/26 Best Bet singles (1 unit) Best Bet multiples Total P+L Matchday One 0 -1 -1 Matchday Two 0 -1 -2 Matchday Three 0 -1 -3 Matchday Four 0 -1 -4 Matchday Five +2.75 -1 -2.75 Matchday Six -1 -1 -4.75 Matchday Seven -1 0 -5.75 Matchday Eight -3 0 -8.75 Matchday Nine 0 -1 -9.75 Matchday 10 -1 -1 -11.75

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