The Pathways to a Playoff for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
The celebration of Evan Ferguson’s goal at the Aviva Stadium last night was a reminder of what it can be like to follow the Republic of Ireland. The fact that 42,292 fans were in the ground was another indicator that all we need is a glimmer of hope to keep on coming.
So, how strong is that glimmer after last night’s results in Dublin and in Portugal, where the visitors snatched a late point, not a good one for us.
We ran the same set of simulations as after the defeat in Lisbon at the weekend. While the 1–0 victory over Armenia in Dublin has breathed fresh life into the campaign, the numbers suggest the road to the top two in Group F is still a steep one.
After four rounds, the table has tightened: Portugal sit on 10 points, Hungary on 5, Ireland on 4, and Armenia on 3. With two matches left to play, every result is vital.
The new simulation puts Ireland’s chance of a top-two finish at around 14 per cent, up from nine per cent before the Armenia match. Hungary, by contrast, are now 83 per cent likely to secure qualification, with Portugal all but sure to advance.
The modest improvement reflects two factors: Ireland’s much-needed win and Hungary’s late 2–2 draw with Hungary in Lisbon. That draw, powered by a late equaliser from Dominik Szoboszlai, has put them in the driving seat. Still, the door is ajar for both Ireland and Armenia heading into November’s double header.
The Scenarios Ahead
Ireland’s next two fixtures are as tricky as they come — Portugal at home on November 13 and Hungary away in Budapest three days later.
Using current Elo ratings and betting market probabilities, the model gives Ireland just a 15 per cent chance of beating Portugal in Dublin and a 21 per cent chance away to Hungary.
Portugal are heavily favoured in both of their remaining games, while Hungary’s trip to Yerevan to face Armenia looms as the actual hinge point for how the group will finish.
If Ireland can defy the odds and beat Portugal, their chance of a top-two finish jumps to roughly 20 per cent — but if they win and Armenia takes points from Hungary, that could surge above 40 per cent, and might mean that a draw in Hungary is enough.
Conversely, if Ireland lose to Portugal while Hungary win in Armenia, the campaign is over, with a game to go.
Running similar numbers for Northern Ireland are an easier read, with the key fixture being the trip to Bratislava to play Slovakia on November 12th.
A win there and there chances of a Top[ 2 finish climb to 58% with Slovakia facing Germany in the final game and Luxembourg coming to Belfast. Even a draw would leave a 33 per cent chance given the last set of games, though defeat and Germany getting a point against Luxembourg means that this journey would be over as well.
Image Credit: Stephen McCarthy, Sportsfile.
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