Odds of tropical storm Jerry forming INCREASE as spaghetti models reveal its path toward the US
A new storm system forming in the Atlantic could soon become the next tropical blast that threatens the US East Coast. Hurricane forecasters revealed that the developing system, currently Invest 95L, has a 70 percent chance of turning into a tropical cyclone over the next week.If it reaches tropical storm status, with a more organized structure and sustained winds of at least 40mph, it will be named Jerry.It's currently in the central Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has projected that the storm will approach Puerto Rico before turning north and potentially toward the East Coast.Meteorologists at AccuWeather described 95L as 'a cluster of showers and thunderstorms' that will likely organize into a tropical storm by the end of the week.If Jerry does form, it'll be the tenth named storm to form in the Atlantic this year, and forecasters have warned that the US is still in the peak of hurricane season.While many early spaghetti models predict Jerry will turn into the middle of the Atlantic and avoid US landfall, some tracks show the storm could keep a straighter path, putting the Southeast in danger a week from now.'The East Coast of the US should closely monitor the tropics through the middle of the month,' AccuWeather wrote in a weather alert Monday. Invest 95L has a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next week Invest 95L (pictured on radar) is currently in the central Atlantic and is headed for the Caribbean this weekForecasters expect Jerry to gather strength once it reaches the Caribbean over the next few days.It'll first build into a tropical depression this week, meaning the storm will grow a defined center of low pressure and some circulation, looking more like a swirling weather system on satellite images.From there, NHC forecasters expect it to intensify into Tropical Storm Jerry with stronger thunderstorms and winds between 40 and 75 mph.If the sustained winds grow even stronger than that, Jerry would turn into the third Atlantic hurricane to threaten the US in the last two weeks, following Humberto and Imelda.Looking at the current paths for Jerry, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said: 'While many options remain possible with its future track, the most likely track appears to turn the future storm to the north as it passes by the Caribbean islands.''This would keep it east of the US mainland,' Pydynowski added.Meanwhile, another hurricane has already formed in the Pacific, threatening to bring thunderstorms and flash floods to several West Coast states this week.Hurricane Priscilla is currently a Category 1 storm, but forecasters have warned that it could reach major hurricane status as it moves up the coast of Mexico. Spaghetti models show Tropical Storm Jerry is likely to turn away from the US and move into the middle of the Atlantic Hurricane Priscilla is expected to bring rain storms and flash flood to several southwestern states this weekMost spaghetti models for Priscilla show turning north as it moves through the Pacific, bringing a wave of moisture to Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Southern California.A spaghetti model shows the different possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.Each line represents one model's guess about where the storm could go. If the lines are close together, it means most models agree on the path, and the prediction is more certain.Priscilla has already become the 16th named storm in the Pacific, severely outpacing the predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).Earlier this year, the agency predicted a 'below-normal season' for the eastern Pacific, with 12 to 18 named storms, five to ten hurricanes, and up to five major hurricanes.In both the Atlantic and the Pacific, there are still nearly two months to go before hurricane season comes to an end, around November 30.AccuWeather's Chad Merrill told the Daily Mail that Americans should not let their guard down, even though no Atlantic hurricanes have struck the East Coast this year.'We'll probably see a couple of more storms develop between now and the end of the hurricane season,' Merrill said.'We'll probably see a couple of more in October as well,' the 22-year veteran forecaster added.
