Nato fighter jets shoot down Russian drones over Poland
In the early hours of Wednesday morning (10 September), Polish and Dutch fighter jets scrambled to intercept more than a dozen Russian drones over Poland. Multiple Nato forces were involved, with Italy providing surveillance and refuelling aircraft while German air defence missile systems deployed in Poland were placed on alert.
Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, said at least 19 drones had entered Polish airspace, with around four assessed to pose a direct threat shot down. He invoked Article Four of the North Atlantic treaty, triggering urgent talks by the Nato alliance, and warned that the incident, “brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two”.
The last time Article Four was invoked was on 24 February 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Unlike Article Five, which requires Nato members to respond to an attack against one of them as though it were an attack against them all, Article Four merely calls for consultations. Article Four can be activated by any member who believes their “territorial integrity, political independence or security” is threatened.
Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte said the alliance’s members had “denounced Russia’s reckless behaviour” at the Article Four meeting and vowed to “defend every inch of allied territory.” Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, said there were indications the Russian incursion was “intentional,” warning that “Russia’s war is escalating, not ending” its war. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the “egregious and unprecedented violation of Polish and Nato airspace” and called Russia’s actions “extremely reckless”.
Russia’s charge d’affaires in Poland, the top Russian diplomat in the country, claimed the accusations against Russia were “groundless”. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the incident, saying it was a matter for the Russian defence ministry. The ministry later released a statement that said there had “been no plans to target facilities on the territory of Poland” – which did not amount to a denial – and offered to “hold consultations” with their Polish counterparts.
The context of this incursion is important. While there have been previous incidents involving stray weapons striking Nato countries’ territory – including a Ukrainian air defence missile that accidentally veered into Poland, killing two people, in November 2022 – Russia has recently significantly escalated its aerial attacks against Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said 415 drones and around 40 missiles had targeted Ukrainian territory on the same night the drones entered Polish airspace. Russia launched its largest aerial bombardment of Ukraine since the start of the war at the weekend, firing more than 800 drones and 13 missiles at Kyiv on 7 September. At least four people were killed and a Ukrainian government building in the heart of the capital was set on fire. A Russian glide bomb attack on the village of Yarova in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine on 9 September killed at least 24 civilians who were queuing to collect their monthly pension, according to the Ukrainian authorities.
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The Kremlin may also be deliberately probing Nato forces’ defences and testing the alliance’s resolve. Former British defence secretary Ben Hodges told the Financial Times he believed the incident was “not an accident” given the number of drones involved. “This was a rehearsal,” he said. “To probe, and find out how good are our early warning systems, what are our reaction times.”
Following his red-carpet welcome by Donald Trump in Alaska in August, and the US President’s repeated failure to follow through on his threats to get tough on Russia, Vladimir Putin appears emboldened to step up his assault on Ukraine. At a press conference in Beijing on 3 September, where he attended a Chinese military parade alongside Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un, the Russian leader claimed the Ukrainian armed forces were “increasingly running out of reserves,” with combat-ready units staffed at no more than 47 to 48 percent. With Trump back in the White House, repeatedly advertising his impatience to distance the United States from this war, and the conflict grinding into its fourth year, Putin seems increasingly confident that time and battlefield momentum are on his side.
The question now is whether the incursion into Poland changes that calculation for Trump, finally persuading him that Putin was never serious about seeking peace and prompting renewed engagement from Washington. Or whether this incident only hardens the US President’s determination to bring an end to this conflict, no matter the cost to Ukraine’s sovereignty or ability to defend itself against a future attack, now that he has witnessed such a vivid illustration of how quickly Nato forces could be drawn into a direct confrontation with Russia.
The early indications for Ukraine – and Europe – from Washington were not encouraging. The US ambassador to Nato pledged in a social media post to “defend every inch of NATO territory”. But the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, who was reportedly briefed on the incident overnight, had yet to offer any response at the time of writing.
Trump, who was filmed having dinner with Rubio and defence secretary Pete Hegseth at a seafood restaurant in Washington around the time the incident would have been taking place, renewed his attacks on the US Federal Reserve in a Truth Social post on Wednesday morning. He also called for the killer of a Ukrainian refugee in North Carolina to be “given a ‘Quick’ (there is no doubt!) Trial” and “awarded THE DEATH PENALTY”. More than two hours later, he wrote: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” It was unclear what the US president meant, and whether he intended to take any action in response.
[See also: The real question about European security guarantees for Ukraine]
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