Canada is preparing for what Prime Minister Mark Carney describes as an “extreme tail risk” — the possibility of U.S.-led military action on Canadian soil. In a new New York Times interview, Carney revealed that his government has studied the scenario as part of its national risk planning, while stressing that it is not considered a base case.
The disclosure comes amid escalating tensions between Canada and the United States. Donald Trump has repeatedly discussed Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state and has previously raised the possibility of using “economic force.” Meanwhile, Ottawa is reviewing its planned purchase of F-35 fighter jets and looking at alternatives, while also considering ways to reduce its reliance on Elon Musk’s Starlink.
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