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The two week MACD flipped bullish about two weeks ago, and the hit rate for calling the end of a bear market with that signal has effectively been 100 percent across every major cycle bottom.
The super trend indicator flipped green alongside it, and the share of cycle indicators sitting in the coldest possible band lines up with the same read.
The Fed is the wild card that could invalidate all of it, because multiple rate hikes would put risk assets in an environment where nothing on chain or technical has historically mattered much.
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0:00 Is The Bottom Actually In
0:35 The Two Week MACD
1:17 Super Trend Flipped Green
1:55 On Chain Says The Same Thing
3:28 The Fed Is The Wild Card
4:30 The Kalshi Card
5:45 Where The Confluence Sits
6:45 What Happened In 2007
8:19 The Bearish Case
9:15 Market Structure Is Still Bearish
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