Oil keeps surging, and the 10-Year is one tick from a major breakout.
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Iran struck at a US base in Jordan, tankers are being hit on both sides, and crude is at $95.77 with $97 in sight. That feeds the 10-Year, which pierced 4.816% before backing off. Gareth Soloway lays out the chain — oil, yields, the Fed one week from today — and why he is still bullish anyway.
📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN
🔴 US OIL — Crude is at $95.77, through resistance at $93.25, now aiming at $97. There is a gap in the chart at that level with a pivot high on top of it, so Gareth would not be shocked to see $97 print today. Whether it pushes through decides everything else.
🔴 THE 10-YEAR — The key chart. Yields tagged 4.816% intraday and are backing off below the 4.81 level that has held them all week. Resistance is respected until proven otherwise. Break 4.81 and he sees 5%, which would mean more selling in stocks and oil above $97, maybe $100.
🔵 WHY OIL IS INFLATION — Petroleum is in the products and in the trucking that moves them, so crude feeds the inflation numbers passed to consumers, which pressures yields, which pressures the Fed. That decision lands one week from today.
🟢 SPY — Still above 7,570, so he stays bullish on probability, and he pushes back on the doom. Real catalysts exist: oil pulling back from $97 to $90, yields easing to 4.7%, or the Fed staying pat. Break 7,570 and he goes neutral; lose the zone below and it gets rough.
🔴 DXY — Down again, settling onto short-term support at 98.50. The weaker dollar is what is bidding gold today.
🟢 GOLD — Up about 1.25% and holding support, but a head and shoulders may be forming. His caveat is the lesson: the pattern means nothing until the neckline breaks. If it does, the measured move is roughly $3,950 — a double bottom at the lows. Hold the pivot and gold keeps climbing. That single line is what makes it a clean long with a tight stop.
🔵 SILVER — Same bounce, same potential shoulder-head-shoulder. A neckline break measures to about $55 to $56.
🔴 COPPER — The AI tell. Copper sits near recent highs in a textbook ascending parallel channel, and that upper line has produced a selloff every time. Ascending wedges generally break down. The catalyst would be AI CapEx slowing even slightly, or the economy softening — housing already has, and China's is in a deep depression.
🔵 NATURAL GAS — Retesting major support right now. Break it and gas goes neutral, not bearish. Bearish needs the lower trend line to go.
🔴 GOOGLE — One line matters. A long ascending trend line off the 2025 lows, hit seven times, with price below it pre-market. More hits means weaker, not stronger. Close below today and he sees a trap door toward $272 over the coming months — but only the close counts.
🔵 SK HYNIX — A day trade. If it runs into the double top near $195 after this multi-day surge, he wants a quick short.
🔵 APPLE — Unveiling day. The foldable is already priced in. The only thing that moves the stock is whether they finally answer on AI. His line in the sand is about $316, and again it is the close that matters.
🔵 AI NAMES — Mostly backing off. Seagate was yesterday's real mover at plus 6.5%, not SanDisk, and it is giving some back today.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: One number decides the week. If oil clears $97, the 10-Year clears 4.81 and 5% comes into play — and that is what forces the Fed's hand next Wednesday. If crude just slips to $90, every domino reverses. Gareth agrees a reckoning is coming, but on a hundred-year cycle, not this week. Until 7,570 breaks, the levels say bullish.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Oil Surges on Middle East Escalation
02:20 What Oil Does to the S&P Futures
04:20 The 10-Year at 4.81 — The Key Chart
05:55 Why Gareth Is Still Bullish: The Catalysts
07:35 Dollar Slides Into 98.50
08:05 Gold's Head and Shoulders Explained
10:15 Silver's Matching Pattern
10:50 Copper: The AI Buildout Tell
12:35 Natural Gas on the Line
13:30 Google's Seven-Touch Trend Line
14:55 Apple's Unveiling and the $316 Line
16:10 The AI Names Back Off
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💬 COMMENT: Does oil clear $97 this week?
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⚠️ Educational and informational only — not financial advice. Gareth Soloway and Verified Investing are not registered investment advisors. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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