Oil forces yields higher into the Fed, but tech is showing real strength.
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A short week with everything in it. PPI Thursday, CPI Friday, and the Fed decision a week from Wednesday with hike odds at 58.4%. Weekend escalation pushed crude to $94.73 overnight before it backed off. Gareth Soloway traces the chain — oil drives yields, yields drive the Fed — plus levels on Novartis, Oracle, and Apple.
📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN
🔴 THE WEEK AHEAD — PPI Thursday, CPI Friday, then the September 16 decision. Fed Watch shows a 58.4% chance of a hike, and this week's inflation data is what moves that number.
🔴 US OIL — Up about 1.5%, but the level matters more than the move. Crude popped to $94.73 overnight and pulled back under the key pivot high it briefly cleared. Oil up means yields up, and yields up may force the Fed's hand.
🟢 THE 10-YEAR — Above 4.8% and hammering the same resistance, getting rejected again — exactly what resistance is supposed to do. Until it breaks, assume it holds. Gareth's lesson: most traders talk their own book and assume the level fails because they are positioned for it. Respecting the level with a tight stop beats predicting it.
🔴 DXY — The bear flag broke, price bounced, and it is rolling back over. Lose $98.50 and the next zone is $97.70, a cluster of pivot lows. A clean lesson in broken resistance becoming support.
🔵 SPY — Above 7,570 he stays bullish, with upside to retest the orange trend line that has rejected price three times. Break 7,570 and it is the neutral zone down to roughly 7,400. Below 7,400 could precede a major selloff.
🟢 NOVARTIS — The opportunity of the day. NVS is down 12%, its biggest one-day drop since March 2020, and emotion that extreme is where a level pays. His number is $133, about six dollars below price, where a pivot high tagged three times before breaking out now flips to support. Second factor: the fib from the low to the all-time high puts the 50% retrace in the same spot. Two factors on one price is roughly 75%.
🟢 ORACLE — Up pre-market with semis, data centers, and hyperscalers catching bids again. Earnings hit later this week and buyers are front-running it. Resistance is $179 to $180, where three pivot lows that were support now cap price, with the 50% fib at $182 right there. He also thinks Micron can reach $1,150.
🔴 APPLE — Down again ahead of tomorrow's unveiling, the first since Tim Cook left. Nobody is buying the rumor, the reverse of the usual pattern. But the daily shows a macro bear flag — sharp drop, inside-bar consolidation — and those usually resolve lower. Two unfilled gaps sit overhead, and as long as price holds below the prior high, a rally into them is a shortable swing.
🔵 GOLD / SILVER — No man's land. Gold broke the descending trend line, popped, got rejected at the ascending line, and bounced off short-term support. Silver is doing the same. He waits.
🟢 NATGAS — Flat to slightly negative but still above his pivot line, still bullish.
🔴 BITCOIN — Dropping again, with roughly $77,000 as the line. Break it and he expects a bigger retrace; hold it and another breakout is on the table. Major resistance still sits overhead.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Everything on this list runs through oil. Crude pushes inflation, inflation pushes yields, and yields decide whether the Fed hikes on the 16th. Watch the crude chart this week and you are watching all of it.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 A Short Week With CPI, PPI, and the Fed
02:30 Oil Hits $94.73 Then Backs Off
06:00 Why Oil Decides the Rate Decision
09:00 The 10-Year Gets Rejected Again
12:00 Why Traders Talk Their Own Book
15:00 The Dollar's Next Support at $97.70
18:00 S&P: 7,570, Then 7,400
22:00 Novartis Down 12% — The $133 Setup
27:00 Oracle Into Earnings and $180
31:00 Apple's Bear Flag Before the Unveiling
35:00 Gold and Silver Wait
37:00 Bitcoin's $77,000 Line
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💬 COMMENT: Does CPI change the Fed's mind?
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⚠️ Educational and informational only — not financial advice. Gareth Soloway and Verified Investing are not registered investment advisors. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
#StockMarket #Trading #Oil #Yields #Fed #CPI #Novartis #Oracle #Apple #Gold #Bitcoin #SP500 #DayTrading 
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