A strong jobs report, a presidential rage post, and everything sold.
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Payrolls beat by 109,000 with upward revisions — which should have been good news. Instead stocks, gold, silver, and Bitcoin all sold, because a stronger economy means a likelier September 16 hike. Then the president posted demanding a rate cut. Gareth Soloway wraps the week and explains why he still thinks the Fed does nothing.
📐 THIS WEEK IN REVIEW
🔴 THE JOBS REPORT — 162,000 jobs, a 109,000 beat, and revisions to the upside instead of the usual downside. The S&P fell four tenths of a percent. Anything that pressures rates higher pulls risk assets with it.
🔴 THE RAGE POST — The president demanded the Fed lower rates and threatened to cancel trade contracts with any country the US does not run a surplus with. Gareth reads it as a negotiating tactic: push for a cut, hope for neutral. But pressure on the Fed while it fights inflation makes investors wary.
🟢 SPY — Still above the white trend line near 7,570, so he stays net bullish into next week. Break it and he goes neutral; break the zone beneath and he expects a bigger selloff.
🔴 DXY — A minimal bounce after two massive down moves. The macro pattern matters: the trend line broke, price retraced, and while it stays below, pressure is down. Bounces get sold — which quietly implies the Fed does nothing.
🔵 ON WARSH — The tightrope. He speaks hawkish every time out, but Gareth wonders if the talk is designed to let the market do the tightening for him. Appointed by a president who wants cuts, inheriting an inflation problem, he talks tough and has not acted.
🔴 THE 10-YEAR — Still below the double top. While it holds, technicals favor a pullback in yields, lining up with a tamer inflation print and no hike on the 16th.
🟢 TESLA — Reversed yesterday's Elon-driven pop after regulators questioned the robotaxis, giving back the whole move and then some. Still short-term up, inside a bigger parallel channel — and Gareth shows why that channel has been a gift: buy the lower line, short the upper.
🔵 APPLE — Fell today after a strong run. He wanted the gap fill for a swing short and never got it. He also flags the backdrop: institutional money returns from the Hamptons next week, and that is his tell.
🔵 GOLD / SILVER — Gold hit resistance just under $4,700, fell to support, and bounced — no man's land, and he holds no swing position. Silver did the same, on a pivotal-bias trend line: support, then resistance, then support again. Above it, benefit of the doubt. Below it, a sharp drop.
🔴 OIL / NATGAS — Crude was down much more early, then buyers stepped in ahead of the long weekend — nobody wants to be short into a closed market with escalation risk. Gareth thinks oil comes down near term, $83 to $84. Natural gas stays above the pivot line, bullish into cooler-month seasonality.
🟢 BITCOIN — Pulled back today but is holding right under resistance — the yellow zone plus the white ascending trend line. Gareth stays a skeptic until it breaks, but he is impressed: pullbacks early in the week, a huge surge, then buyers holding near the highs. Break $82,000 and $90,000-plus is in play.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Good news sold off. A strong labor market should be bullish, and instead every risk asset fell — because the only thing the market is trading is the path of rates. Until CPI and PPI land, the economy's health is being read backwards.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Jobs Beat by 109,000 — and Stocks Fall
03:00 The President's Post on the Fed
06:00 S&P: Still Above the Bullish Line
09:00 The Dollar's Macro Pattern
12:00 Is Warsh Just Talking Tough?
16:00 Tesla's Channel: Buy Low, Short High
21:00 Apple and the Hamptons Volume Tell
25:00 Gold and Silver in No Man's Land
29:00 Why Oil Held Into the Weekend
32:00 Bitcoin: $82,000 Unlocks $90,000
35:00 What Matters Next Week
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💬 COMMENT: Does the Fed stay pat on September 16?
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