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"No BS. Just Charts."
🎙 TODAY'S HOST: Gareth Soloway is filling in for Drew Dosek.
Welcome back to "Trading The Close." The S&P fell half a percent, which is nothing — but the dollar broke down while the 30-Year hit a 25-year high, and that combination is a warning shot about trust in the US financial system. Gareth Soloway walks the megaphone pattern boxing in the S&P, why the semis cushioned the Nasdaq, and the one asset with no excuse not to rally in a setup like this.
📐 TONIGHT'S WATCHLIST
🔴 YIELDS / DXY — The dollar sits below major support while the 10- and 30-Year climb, which is backwards. A falling dollar normally means the Fed is printing and yields drop. Instead, holders are dumping dollars and demanding more interest to own the debt. The 30-Year weekly was last here in June 2007, with far less debt.
🔴 SPY — Down half a percent and closed on the lows, still chopping inside the big parallel off the COVID and bear-market lows. Gareth adds the line off the early- and late-2024 highs, which extends through the May high and the recent pivots. Two diverging lines make a megaphone: resistance near 7,830, support near 7,350.
🟢 NASDAQ — Down only a quarter percent and still below its highs after six months of mega-cap unwinding in Microsoft and Meta. It beat the S&P because the S&P is more sensitive to oil than to capex — and Google is not cutting a $300–500 billion budget because crude went from $80 to $85.
🟢 SNDK / MU / WDC / CBRS — The bid that saved the index. SanDisk closed up almost 9%, Micron 4%, Western Digital 5.3%, Cerebras 15%. Storage and chips did the heavy lifting while software sold off.
🔴 MSFT — A beautiful little dump. It rallied hard on earnings into two factors at once: a gap fill and the 0.786 fib from the high to the low. Gareth had this in Smart Money: Stocks and ETFs and closed three winners today.
🟢 GOLD / SILVER — Ask what gold should do when yields rise on lost trust rather than growth. It rose about 1%, though it has not taken out the short-term highs. Silver banged on its resistance trend line again.
🔵 US OIL / NATGAS — Oil jumped almost 3%, topping exactly when the S&P bottomed, on fresh Iran–US threats. But it is still inside a converging wedge, so no $120 panic until it confirms. Natural gas is flat, resistance $2.83, support $2.57.
🟢 BITCOIN — The chart Gareth watches hardest. It broke out and has floated gently since, which he reads as charging its battery. Take out $65,400 with follow-through tomorrow and the fuse is lit, opening $70,000-plus and a pivot confluence near $75,000 — a $10,000 move from here.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: This is the exact scenario Bitcoin was built for. Yields rising on lost faith rather than strength, a dollar falling on de-dollarization — if Bitcoin cannot rally into that, the problem is not the macro, it is Bitcoin. Gareth thinks it shows up. Tomorrow's follow-through is the tell.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 The Warning Shot in the Bond Market
04:00 Dollar Down, Yields Up: Why It Is Backwards
09:00 The 30-Year Last Traded Here in 2007
14:00 S&P: The Megaphone Pattern
20:00 Oil Tops as the S&P Bottoms
25:00 Why the Nasdaq Held Up Better
30:00 SanDisk, Micron, WDC, Cerebras
36:00 Microsoft: Two Factors, Three Winners
41:00 Gold, Silver, Natural Gas
46:00 Bitcoin: Is the Fuse Lit?
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⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. The information provided is not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor.
#StockMarket #Trading #TradingTheClose #Yields #Bonds #SP500 #Nasdaq #Semiconductors #Gold #Silver #Bitcoin #Microsoft #DayTrading 
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