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CPI came in exactly in line — every number matched estimates — and the market is relieved. Gareth Soloway goes straight to what matters: the dollar is falling into major trend-line support, the 10-Year is coming in, and FedWatch flipped back to favoring no hike in September. Add blowout AI earnings from CoreWeave, SMCI, and NBIS, and the question is whether the S&P breaks out.
📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN
🔵 CPI BREAKDOWN — Headline +0.1% monthly and +3.4% yearly, core +0.2% and +2.5%, all in line. Shelter's one-tenth uptick was two-thirds of the gain, and airline fares jumped 2.2%.
🔵 THE FED — FedWatch flipped from a coin flip to 55.9% no hike versus 44.1% hike on September 16. Gareth's view has not moved: no hikes. Hiking into a softening labor market is a tough sell, and he sees cuts in 2027.
🔴 DXY / 10-YR YIELD — The dollar is falling into the daily trend line he has flagged for several videos. Break it and he calls it a slippery slope — smart money voting no hike. The 10-Year sits at 4.656%, already falling before the print.
🟢 SPY — The move off support into resistance and the chop that followed, even with oil in the mid-$80s, reads as bullish consolidation. Falling yields, a falling dollar, and hot AI earnings may trigger the breakout. If it goes, 8,100–8,200 is possible within a couple of months — and he believes that is where the major top forms.
🟢 CRWV — Up nearly 20% and the big level of the day. A three-factor pivot at $122 stacks a descending trend line, a pivot high, and the 0.618 fib. Trading near $107, so it is a ways off, but he likes it a lot.
🟢 SMCI — Guidance came in roughly 35–40% above consensus and the stock is ripping. First day-trade level near $36.75, then $38.15, with the big one at $40.50.
🟢 CAVA / NBIS — Cava's guidance points to middle-income customers returning; aggressive traders can eye the $74.40 pivot top, though Gareth watches $76.75. NBIS is up almost 20%; he prefers $240–241 as a day trade, with the $240–$275 gap as the swing level.
🟢 GOLD / GDX / SILVER — Gold pushes into a thick band of resistance and GDX runs hard, with resistance near $94. Silver is up but below yesterday's highs and broke its descending trend line — a retrace to that line would be a return to the scene of the crime.
🔵 US OIL / NATGAS — Iran and the US are no closer to a deal, and the wedge tells the same story as the news: a holding pattern tightening until something resolves it. Natural gas keeps failing $2.83; a daily close above opens $3.00.
🟢 BITCOIN — Two down days after Strategy sold some Bitcoin on Monday, now inching off the lows with risk assets. Gareth stays bullish for one reason: the breakout still holds. Lose the trend line and probability flips.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: The chart beats the narrative. Gareth is blunt that when he trades the news, emotion takes over and he loses. Charts do not win every time — he puts it near 75% — but that edge is why the trend line, not the headline, decides his stance.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 CPI Hits: Every Number In Line
02:00 Shelter, Airfares, and Gas
06:00 FedWatch Flips to No Hike
10:00 Dollar at Trend-Line Support
14:00 The 10-Year Was Already Falling
17:00 S&P Breakout and the 8,200 Top
22:00 CoreWeave's Three-Factor Pivot
26:00 SMCI, Cava, NBIS Levels
33:00 Gold, GDX, Silver's Retrace
37:00 Oil and Natural Gas
41:00 Bitcoin: Charts Over News
45:00 Wrap-Up
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💬 COMMENT below: Does the S&P break out today, or fade the CPI relief?
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