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A weak jobs report sent the market higher, and the reason is rates. Payrolls came in at minus 23,000 against roughly 83,000 expected, with prior months revised down another 103,000 and the slowest wage growth in years. September hike odds collapsed, and cheaper money is what buyers want. On this Weekly Wrap-Up, Gareth Soloway maps the trend lines that decide how far this rally runs, why the VIX has him watching complacency, and his favorite trade right now.
📐 THIS WEEK'S WRAP-UP
🟢 SPY — Up 0.6%, just off Wednesday's all-time high. Near-term resistance is the trend line off the COVID low near 7,800; break it and little stands in the way until 8,100, where Gareth would short heavily.
🔵 JOBS AND THE FED — Participation at 61.4%, down 0.7% since January, means a shrinking labor pool masks real weakness. FedWatch shows 58.1% odds of no move on September 16 versus 41.9% for a hike, a huge swing from roughly 70% days ago.
🔴 VIX — The complacency gauge. Below 15 Gareth gets nervous: it can stay low for months, but it always pops eventually to 20, 25, or higher. In the 12s to 14s he starts a small core short.
🔵 DXY / 10-YR YIELD — The dollar fell but held support rather than breaking it. Yields dipped then rallied off the lows, because the inflation bug is still embedded — capping how far rates can fall.
🟢 ORCL — The chart Gareth likes most: a beautiful rounded cup now building its handle. If it holds into mid next week, he looks for the move up.
🟢 NVDA — A great bounce off a trend line built from three successive low pivots. He sees a little more upside, with a no-brainer short level far above if it keeps running.
🟢 SPACEX — Up 15%-plus, recovering after collapsing from a $225 post-IPO high to about $105. Bullish sentiment is returning.
🔴 MSFT — Kissed a gap fill and printed a topping tail, a bearish reversal signal, right as Oracle sets up bullish. Which side wins says a lot about the tech trade.
🟢 GOLD — Continued its wedge breakout right into the $4,375 first resistance Gareth called. That level must break for the next leg. He expects a fade into the inflation data.
🔴 SILVER — Rallied straight to $64, exactly the level he named. Until it clears and confirms above it he does not believe the breakout — just a retrace to the level that keeps rejecting it.
🔵 US OIL / NATGAS — Oil slips with all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz; natural gas inched up 1.4%.
🟢 BITCOIN — His favorite trade right now. It has broken out without making its big move yet, so the risk is clean: lose the level and it is a failed breakout. Clear $67K and he wants $71K–$72K, tracking gold with a lag.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Complacency is a slow fuse. The VIX under 15 does not call a top — it can sit there for months — but fear always returns with a spike. That is why Gareth stays bullish near term while planning his short.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Weak Jobs, Strong Rally: Why Rates Rule
04:00 Inside the Report and the Revisions
07:30 FedWatch Swings to No Hike
10:30 S&P: The 7,800 and 8,100 Trend Lines
15:00 Dollar Holds Support, Yields Bounce
18:30 The VIX and Building Complacency
23:00 Oracle's Cup and Handle
26:00 Nvidia and SpaceX Recover
30:00 Microsoft's Topping Tail
32:00 Gold and Silver Hit Their Levels
38:00 Oil, Natural Gas, and Bitcoin
42:00 Wrap-Up
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💬 COMMENT below: Does the S&P clear 7,800 next week, or fade on inflation data?
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