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An epic day is setting up. The Fed decides at 2pm with a real chance of a curveball — markets put the odds of a hike near 38%, far from the usual zero — followed by the press conference and then Meta, Microsoft, and a wave of chip earnings after the bell. Meanwhile South Korea's KOSPI hit limit-down for a second straight day, down about 44% peak to trough after a 300% run, and oil ripped 7% as the bombs started flying again. On today's Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway explains why he's inching into the beaten-down chips and where the multi-factor levels sit.
📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN
🟢 KOSPI / SEMIS — Korea's index halts limit-down two days running, down about 44% from the peak after a 300% year — but it pierced the 50% fib with the 61.8% below. Gareth is nibbling chips for a 20–30% bounce, not calling the correction over.
🔵 SPY / ES FUTURES — Futures fade into the open as oil pops and semis stay mixed after SK Hynix's earnings whipsaw.
🔴 US OIL — Up about 7% as US-Iran strikes resume. Gareth booked his short and won't re-enter: only one factor now, and he needs two. A compressing wedge is starting to form.
🟢 SNDK — Three trend lines converge at one zone: a horizontal, a slight ascending, and a sharper ascending line. Gareth calls it a strong swing buy if price gets there, targeting a 20–30% bounce.
🔵 STX / SK HYNIX — Seagate beats and raises with a 5–6% pre-market pop but no clean trade; SK Hynix stabilizes near flat, and it's the tell for the whole chip complex.
🟢 BE — Bloom Energy pops on great earnings and raised guidance after a 55% one-month collapse into heavy support — a 75%-plus probability bounce setup. Gareth already banked the gain.
🔵 SOFI / VRT — SoFi dips on earnings with an intriguing $15 pierce for a day trade only; Vertiv's gap window near $231 and the multi-factor pivot-plus-gap-fill near $200 is where Gareth would swing.
🔵 GOLD — The remarkable wedge keeps compressing, with a forced break by roughly August 14. Gareth starts legging in near $3,500.
🔴 SILVER — Weak and favoring lower. Anything around $50 is a starter position, then accumulate on the way down.
🔵 NATGAS — Small bounce; Gareth switches to the spot chart for a cleaner trend line, with next support near $2.55–$2.56.
🟢 BITCOIN — Holding the upper range. Wants $62.5K–$63K to hold, then a break above $67K to target $71K.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Every trade needs two factors. One trend line or one fib is a guess; two independent factors stacking at the same level historically delivers about a 75% success rate. That's why Gareth shorted oil at the fib plus trend line — and why he's passing on it now.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Fed Day: A Real Chance of a Curveball
04:00 S&P Futures and the SK Hynix Whipsaw
06:30 KOSPI Limit-Down: Anatomy of a Bubble Correction
12:00 US Oil Rips 7% — Why Gareth Is Not Re-Shorting
16:00 Bloom Energy: The 55% Drop and the Bounce
19:00 Seagate, SK Hynix, and the Chip Tell
22:00 SanDisk: Three Trend Lines Converge
26:00 SoFi and Vertiv Earnings Levels
28:30 Gold's Wedge and Silver's Weakness
31:00 Natural Gas and Bitcoin
33:00 Wrap-Up
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💬 COMMENT below: Do the semis bottom here, or does the Fed send them lower?
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