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The chip collapse Gareth warned about months ago is here. Chinese competition is flooding the space — Shanghai Yulin Sheng building ASML-style lithography machines and CXMT's IPO ripping 466% — and it's crushing the fat margins that sent semis to the moon. Some AI names are down 50%-plus in a single month. On today's Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway calls the Nasdaq's make-or-break trend line, maps where he's starting to nibble longs on the wreckage, and explains why the software hyperscalers are catching the money instead.
📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN
🔴 NASDAQ / QQQ — Down about 9% from the peak and testing the trend line off the 2021 and October 2025 highs. Today's close is everything: hold the line for a multi-day bounce, lose it and Gareth sees another 1,500–2,000 points lower toward a 15% correction.
🔵 SPY — Holding near flat while the Nasdaq leads the fear. The S&P's diversification is cushioning it — for now.
🟢 GLW — Corning gets annihilated about 17% on soft guidance, down roughly 56% from highs a month ago. Gareth eyes nibbling near the big $120 support, with upside back toward $148 if it holds.
🟢 SNDK / MU — SanDisk down about 50% in a month into a key gap fill; Gareth begins small nibbles, ready to add lower, expecting an eventual pierce toward major support before a 20–30% bounce. Micron's big gap fill sits well below.
🔵 ASML — Pressured by the new Chinese lithography competition. Gareth wants to see it drop into major support before considering a bounce trade.
🔴 AAPL — The one rallying name Gareth would short: he likes it to the downside above $340.
🟢 MSFT / META / ORCL — Beaten-down software hyperscalers catching the money flow. Gareth still expects an Oracle snapback toward $140 from the low near $115.
🔵 UPS / PYPL / KO / CAG — UPS fades on the conference call despite decent numbers ($103 pivot on watch); PayPal pinned by a buyout offer; Coke and dividend-payer ConAgra having strong mornings.
🔵 GOLD / SILVER — Gold coils in a textbook wedge — $3,500 on a break down, $4,500 on a break up. Silver still weak below resistance with $54 support in question.
🔴 US OIL / NATGAS — Oil flat-to-negative and choppy after Gareth booked his short; natural gas breaks its ascending trend line with a negative bias toward $2.72.
🟢 BITCOIN — The relative-strength standout, outperforming stocks, gold, and silver since June. Gareth still sees a potential move to $71K–$72K as long as the pivots hold.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: You sell chip stocks when the PE looks cheap, not when it looks expensive. A low PE marks peak margins — exactly when new competition arrives to crush them. History rhymes, and the crowd that bought the "cheap" semis is learning it the hard way.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 The Chip Collapse: Competition Arrives From China
04:00 Nasdaq: The Make-or-Break Trend Line
08:00 Corning (GLW): Annihilated Into Major Support
12:00 SanDisk, Micron, and ASML: Where to Nibble
17:00 SpaceX and the Sentiment Shift
19:00 Apple and the Software Money Flow
22:00 Earnings: UPS, PayPal, Coke, ConAgra
25:30 Gold and Silver: The Wedge and the Levels
28:30 Oil, Natural Gas, and Bitcoin
31:30 Wrap-Up
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💬 COMMENT below: Does the Nasdaq hold the line, or is the bigger correction starting?
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